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Linking public investment programs and SPAHD macro models : methodology and application to aid requirements

  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Bayraktar, Nihal
  • Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel

The authors propose a"bottom up"approach to link public investment programs with a class of macro models recently developed to quantify Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD) in low-income countries. The methodology involves establishing constant-price projections of investment outlays (disaggregated into infrastructure, education, and health), spending on maintenance and other goods and services, salaries, and user charges. These estimates are incorporated in a SPAHD macro framework to calculate, under alternative scenarios, domestic financing, foreign borrowing, and aid requirements. The authors also evaluate the impact on growth and indicators associated with the Millennium Development Goals. They use illustrative applications, based on a SPAHD model for Niger, to highlight the link between tax reform and aid requirements.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3944.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3944
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  1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2008. "Roads out of poverty? Assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 277-295, June.
  2. P R Agénor, 2004. "The Macroeconomics of Poverty Reduction," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 43, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  3. Pierre Richard Agénor & Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2006. "The Allocation of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0608, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  4. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2005. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa : a macroeconomic monitoring framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3750, The World Bank.
  5. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Mind your P's and Q's : the cost of public investment is not the value of public capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1660, The World Bank.
  6. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2005. "A macroeconomic framework for quantifying growth and poverty reduction strategies in Niger," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3506, The World Bank.
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