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Multilateral trade liberalization and Mexican households : the effect of the Doha development agenda


  • Nicita, Alessandro


Empirical evidence suggests that global trade reforms are unlikely to produce analogous results across countries, especially when analyzing their effect on poverty. This implies that the analysis of trade reform on social welfare cannot be generalized and needs to be conducted on a country by country basis. Moreover, even within the same country, geographic areas, households, and individuals are likely to be differentially affected, some of them benefiting more than others, while others might lose. With this in mind, the author provides a quantitative estimate of the effect on Mexican households from the implementation of the Doha development agenda. His analysis uses a two-step approach for which changes in prices and factors are estimated through a CGE model (GTAP) and then mapped into the welfare function of the household using household survey data. The empirical approach the author uses aims to measure the impact of Doha implementation by tracing changes in the household prices of goods and factors and their impact on household welfare, taking particular account the role of domestic price transmission. The findings suggest that multilateral trade liberalization alone would have a negative effect on Mexican households, even though very small. However, when the implementation of the Doha development agenda is complemented by domestic policies aimed at increasing productivity and improving domestic price transmission, the overall effects become positive. The results point to the importance of domestic price transmission in determining the variance of the effects across households.

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  • Nicita, Alessandro, 2005. "Multilateral trade liberalization and Mexican households : the effect of the Doha development agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3707, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3707

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Elena Ianchovichina & Alessandro Nicita & Isidro Soloaga, 2002. "Trade Reform and Poverty: The Case of Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 945-972, July.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    4. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hanson, Gordon H, 1997. "Increasing Returns, Trade and the Regional Structure of Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 113-133, January.
    7. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685.
    8. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    9. Gordon H. Hanson, 2003. "What Has Happened to Wages in Mexico since NAFTA?," NBER Working Papers 9563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Andrew Berg & Anne O. Krueger, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty; A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 03/30, International Monetary Fund.
    11. repec:rus:hseeco:123073 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nicita, Alessandro, 2004. "Who benefited from trade liberalization in Mexico? Measuring the effects on household welfare," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3265, The World Bank.
    13. L. Alan Winters, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9), pages 1339-1367, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Siddig, Khalid & Grethe, Harald, 2014. "International price transmission in CGE models: How to reconcile econometric evidence and endogenous model response?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 12-22.
    2. Anonymous, 2009. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 5, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 5(1).
    3. Mesbah Motamed & Kenneth A. Foster & Wallace E. Tyner, 2008. "Applying cointegration and error correction to measure trade linkages: maize prices in the United States and Mexico," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 29-39, July.
    4. Fleming, Euan M. & Fleming, Pauline, 2007. "Evidence on trends in the single factoral terms of trade in African agricultural commodity production," 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University 7980, Agricultural Economics Society.
    5. Ludena, Carlos E. & Schuschny, Andres & de Miguel, Carlos & Duran Lima, Jose E., 2009. "Georeferenced Assessment of Trade Liberalization Effects on Agriculture in Ecuador," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50556, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Hertel, Thomas W. & Winters, L. Alan, 2005. "Poverty impacts of a WTO agreement : synthesis and overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3757, The World Bank.
    7. Grethe, Harald & Siddig, Khalid H.A. & Goetz, Linde & Ihle, Rico, 2012. "How Do World Agricultural Commodity Price Spikes Affect The Income Distribution In Israel?," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 137154, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).

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    Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Poverty Assessment; TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT; Access to Markets;

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