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Multilateral trade liberalization and Mexican households : the effect of the Doha development agenda

  • Nicita, Alessandro

Empirical evidence suggests that global trade reforms are unlikely to produce analogous results across countries, especially when analyzing their effect on poverty. This implies that the analysis of trade reform on social welfare cannot be generalized and needs to be conducted on a country by country basis. Moreover, even within the same country, geographic areas, households, and individuals are likely to be differentially affected, some of them benefiting more than others, while others might lose. With this in mind, the author provides a quantitative estimate of the effect on Mexican households from the implementation of the Doha development agenda. His analysis uses a two-step approach for which changes in prices and factors are estimated through a CGE model (GTAP) and then mapped into the welfare function of the household using household survey data. The empirical approach the author uses aims to measure the impact of Doha implementation by tracing changes in the household prices of goods and factors and their impact on household welfare, taking particular account the role of domestic price transmission. The findings suggest that multilateral trade liberalization alone would have a negative effect on Mexican households, even though very small. However, when the implementation of the Doha development agenda is complemented by domestic policies aimed at increasing productivity and improving domestic price transmission, the overall effects become positive. The results point to the importance of domestic price transmission in determining the variance of the effects across households.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3707.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3707
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  1. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
  3. Ianchovichina, Elena & Nicita, Alessandro & Soloaga, Isidro, 2001. "Trade reform and household welfare : the case of Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2667, The World Bank.
  4. repec:rus:hseeco:123073 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Nicita, Alessandro, 2004. "Who benefited from trade liberalization in Mexico? Measuring the effects on household welfare," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3265, The World Bank.
  6. Gordon H. Hanson, 2003. "What Has Happened to Wages in Mexico since NAFTA?," NBER Working Papers 9563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Andrew Berg & Anne O. Krueger, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 03/30, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Hanson, Gordon H, 1997. "Increasing Returns, Trade and the Regional Structure of Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 113-33, January.
  9. Hertel, Thomas W. & Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2004. "Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3444, The World Bank.
  10. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey & Parsley, David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Working Paper Series rwp05-016, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  12. L. Alan Winters, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9), pages 1339-1367, 09.
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