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Evidence on trends in the single factoral terms of trade in African agricultural commodity production

  • Fleming, Euan M.
  • Fleming, Pauline
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    The ability of African countries to achieve sustained improvements in agricultural incomes depends on their ability to generate total factor productivity (TFP) change in their agricultural sectors and adjust to movements in agricultural output and input prices. The single factoral terms of trade index measures these changes, calculated as changes in the product of TFP and the agricultural terms of trade. Estimates of the single factoral terms of trade index for the selected commodities over the period 1970-2002 are reported and discussed for 33 African countries for which data sets are available. The index is estimated for producers of coffee, cocoa, copra, palm kernel oil, coconut oil, palm oil, rice, cotton and sugar using annual agricultural sector data. Few countries managed to achieve an increase in the index over this period and it declined in many countries. In the light of the empirical evidence assembled, three broad strategic options are considered, covering agricultural trade reform, economic diversification strategies and strategies to improve total factor productivity in commodity production.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7980
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    Paper provided by Agricultural Economics Society in its series 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University with number 7980.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:aes007:7980
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.aes.ac.uk/
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    1. L. Alan Winters, 2005. "The European agricultural trade policies and poverty," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 319-346, September.
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    5. Robert E. Lipsey, 1994. "Quality Change and other Influences on Measures of Export Prices of Manufactured Goods and the Terms of Trade between Primary Products and Manufacture," NBER Working Papers 4671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Nkamleu, Guy Blaise, 2003. "Productivity Growth, Technical Progress and Efficiency Change in African Agriculture," MPRA Paper 11380, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Arndt, Channing, 2005. "The Doha Trade Round and Mozambique," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3717, The World Bank.
    8. Tim J. Coelli & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2003. "Total Factor Productivity Growth in Agriculture: A Malmquist Index Analysis of 93 Countries,1980-2000," CEPA Working Papers Series WP022003, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
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