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Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia-Pacific: A Survey and Some New Results

We review the literature on the relationship between agricultural trade policy reform and poverty, and the results of recent detailed simulation studies applied to economies in the Asia- Pacific region. We then use the GTAP model to evaluate the possible impacts of the most recently proposed modalities for agricultural trade reform under Doha on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region, which we compare to a benchmark of comprehensive agricultural trade reform. The current proposal does not result in significant cuts to applied tariffs, and has very modest overall effects on welfare. Poverty in the region would decrease overall, but the distribution across countries is uneven. By contrast, comprehensive agricultural trade reform, with developing economies fully engaged, tends to benefit most economies in the region in the aggregate, and to consistently lower poverty.

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File URL: ftp://repec.bus.usu.edu/RePEc/uth/wpaper/DEFWP2008-01.pdf
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Paper provided by Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 200801.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 19 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Asia-Pacific Development Journal
Handle: RePEc:uth:wpaper:200801
Contact details of provider: Postal: 3565 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-3565
Phone: 1-435-797-2314
Fax: 1-435-797-2314
Web page: http://huntsman.usu.edu/economicsandfinance/

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  1. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
  2. John Gilbert, 2009. "Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India," Working Papers 200903, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance, revised 28 Jun 2009.
  3. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 1999. "Trade liberalization and regional integration: the search for large numbers," TMD discussion papers 34, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
  5. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
  6. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, 02.
  7. Joseph Francois & B. Hoekman & M. Manchin, 2005. "Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp87, IIIS.
  8. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, 05.
  9. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 12885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Kuiper, Marijke & van Tongeren, Frank, 2005. "Growing together or growing apart ? a village level study of the impact of the Doha Round on rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3696, The World Bank.
  11. Thomas W. Hertel & L. Alan Winters, 2005. "Estimating the Poverty Impacts of a Prospective Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(8), pages 1057-1071, 08.
  12. Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David & Martin, William J., 2005. "Sensitive Products: Selection and Implications for Agricultural Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 18860, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  13. Linh, Pham Thi Ngoc & Burton, Michael P. & Vanzetti, David, 2008. "The welfare of small livestock producers in Vietnam under trade liberalisation-- Integration of trade and household models," 2008 Conference (52nd), February 5-8, 2008, Canberra, Australia 6023, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  14. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2004. "How Have the World's Poorest Fared Since the Early 1980s?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3341, The World Bank.
  15. L. Alan Winters, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9), pages 1339-1367, 09.
  16. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Cockburn, John & Corong, Erwin, 2005. "Doha scenarios, trade reforms, and poverty in the Philippines," MTID discussion papers 86, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  17. Annabi, Nabil & Khondker, Bazlul & Raihan, Selim & Cockburn, John & Decaluwe, Bernard, 2006. "Implications of WTO agreements and unilateral trade policy reforms for poverty in Bangladesh : short versus long-run impacts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3976, The World Bank.
  18. Sandra Polaski et al, 2008. "Policy dilemmas in India: The Impact of changes in agricultural prices on rural and urban poverty," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-012, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  19. Peter J. Lloyd & Donald Maclaren, 2004. "Gains and Losses from Regional Trading Agreements: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 445-467, December.
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