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Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India

Abstract

We use computable general equilibrium methods to examine the impact that agricultural trade reform under the Doha agreement would have on the Indian economy, in particular on household level welfare. The GTAP model is used to simulate the effect of the latest proposed modalities on the global economy, and those results are then used in a model of India with nine household groups identified by their source of income and consumption pattern. We find that both Doha and comprehensive agricultural trade reform would raise Indian aggregate welfare, with the latter having a much greater impact than the former, but may have a negative impact on the welfare of some rural groups. Overall poverty falls under comprehensive reform and is virtually unchanged under the Doha proposals. Empirical estimates of the distributions of trade elasticities are used to test the robustness of the results.

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File URL: ftp://repec.bus.usu.edu/RePEc/usu/pdf/eri2009-03.pdf
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Paper provided by Utah State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2009-03.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jun 2009
Date of revision: 28 Jun 2009
Handle: RePEc:usu:wpaper:2009-03
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://apec.usu.edu/
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Keywords: Agricultural trade; Doha; India; Poverty;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
  • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
  • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
  • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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  1. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
  2. William R. Cline, 2004. "Trade Policy and Global Poverty," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 379, November.
  3. Philip D. Adams & Mark Horridge & Brian Parmenter & Xiao-Guang Zhang, 1998. "Long-run Effects on China of APEC Trade Liberalisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-130, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  4. Peter J. Lloyd & Donald Maclaren, 2004. "Gains and Losses from Regional Trading Agreements: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 445-467, December.
  5. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 39-82, March.
  6. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
  7. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
  8. John Gilbert, "undated". "Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia-Pacific: A Survey and Some New Results," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/08/01, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
  9. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, 05.
  10. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889, July.
  11. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas, 2003. "Labor market distortions and China's WTO accession package:: an applied general equilibrium assessment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 774-794, December.
  12. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), December.
  13. Basanta K. Pradhan & Sahoo Amarendra, 2006. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Household Welfare and Poverty in India," Working Papers MPIA 2006-01, PEP-MPIA.
  14. Thijs ten Raa & Amarendra Sahoo, 2009. "Competitive Pressure on the Indian Households: A General Equilibrium Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Input–Output Economics: Theory And Applications Featuring Asian Economies, chapter 26, pages 519-538 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  15. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, 02.
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Cited by:

  1. John Gilbert, "undated". "Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in the Asia-Pacific: A Survey and Some New Results," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/08/01, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
  2. John Gilbert, 2008. "Trade Policy, Poverty, and Income Distribution in CGE Models: An Application to SAFTA," Working Papers 2008-02, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2008.
  3. John Gilbert & Nilanjan Banik, 2012. "Socio-economic impacts of regional transport infrastructure in South Asia," Chapters,in: Infrastructure for Asian Connectivity, chapter 5, pages 139-163 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  4. Gilbert, John & Banik, Nilanjan, 2010. "Socioeconomic Impacts of Cross-Border Transport Infrastructure Development in South Asia," ADBI Working Papers 211, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  5. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural trade reform and poverty in the Asia-Pacific region: a survey and some new results," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 15(1), pages 1-34, June.

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