IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/331501.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Searching for the Smoking Gun: Did Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers?

Author

Listed:
  • Winchester, Niven

Abstract

We contribute to the trade-wage literature by conducting the first economy-wide analysis of the association between trade and wages in New Zealand. We find that increased imports since 1980 caused only a marginal increase in New Zealand wage inequality and, overall, increased trade (imports and exports) reduced wage inequality in this nation. As New Zealand imports of unskilled labour-intensive products relative to GDP are larger than those for other developed nations, we interpret these results as convincing evidence that trade is not responsible for rising wage inequality in developed nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Winchester, Niven, 2006. "Searching for the Smoking Gun: Did Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers?," Conference papers 331501, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331501
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/331501/files/2501.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haskel, Jonathan & Slaughter, Matthew J, 2001. "Trade, Technology and U.K. Wage Inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(468), pages 163-187, January.
    2. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
    3. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    4. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Robert Z. Lawrence & Matthew J. Slaughter, 1993. "International Trade and American Wages in the 1980s: Giant Sucking Sound or Small Hiccup?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2 Microec), pages 161-226.
    6. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth & Fargeix, Andre, 1991. "Politically feasible and equitable adjustment: Some alternatives for ecuador," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1577-1594, November.
    7. Coxhead, Ian A. & Warr, Peter G., 1995. "Does Technical Progress In Agriculture Alleviate Poverty? A Philippine Case Study," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 39(1), pages 1-30, April.
    8. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Cahiers de recherche 9909, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
    9. Niven Winchester, 2008. "Trade and Rising Wage Inequality: What Can We Learn from a Decade of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Greenaway & Richard Upward & Peter Wright (ed.), Globalisation and Labour Market Adjustment, chapter 4, pages 54-72, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Lisandro Abrego & John Whalley, 2003. "Goods market responses to trade shocks and trade and wages decompositions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 747-757, August.
    11. Arrow, Kenneth J., 1973. "Higher education as a filter," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 193-216, July.
    12. Stephen Tokarick, 2005. "Quantifying the Impact of Trade on Wages: the Role of Nontraded Goods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 841-860, November.
    13. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    14. Wood, Adrian, 1998. "Globalisation and the Rise in Labour Market Inequalities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1463-1482, September.
    15. William R. Cline, 1997. "Trade and Income Distribution," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 58, April.
    16. Alan Deardorff & Ralph Lattimore, 1999. "Trade and factor-market effects of New Zealand's reforms," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 71-91.
    17. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Howard J. Shatz, 1994. "Trade and Jobs in Manufacturing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 1-84.
    18. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Cockburn, John & Corong, Erwin, 2005. "Doha scenarios, trade reforms, and poverty in the Philippines : a computable general equilibrium analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3738, The World Bank.
    19. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    20. David Greenaway & Douglas R. Nelson (ed.), 2001. "Globalization and Labour Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 1803.
    21. Lisandro Abrego & John Whalley, 2003. "Goods market responses to trade shocks and trade and wages decompositions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 747-757, August.
    22. Richard Nahuis, 1999. "Global Integration and Wages in a General Equilibrium World Model: Contributions of WorldScan," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Paul Brenton & Jacques Pelkmans (ed.), Global Trade and European Workers, chapter 6, pages 123-146, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Roberto A. De Santis, 2003. "Wage Inequality in the United Kingdom: Trade and/or Technology?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 893-909, June.
    24. Alan Deardorff & Ralph Lattimore, 1999. "Trade and factor market effects of New Zealand's reforms - revisited," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 81-85.
    25. Rod Tyers & Yongzheng Yang, 1997. "Trade with Asia and skill upgrading: Effects on labor markets in the older industrial countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 383-418, September.
    26. Paul Brenton & Jacques Pelkmans (ed.), 1999. "Global Trade and European Workers," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-27035-4, October.
    27. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    28. De Santis, Roberto A., 2002. "Wage inequality between and within groups: trade-induced or skill-bias technical change? Alternative age models for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 725-746, November.
    29. Tyers, Rod & Yang, Yongzheng, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Wage Outcomes Following Technical Change in a Global Model," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(3), pages 23-41, Autumn.
    30. Robert E. Baldwin & Glen G. Cain, 2000. "Shifts In Relative U.S. Wages: The Role Of Trade, Technology, And Factor Endowments," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 580-595, November.
    31. Dean Hyslop & Dave Mare & Jason Timmins, 2003. "Qualifications, Employment and the Value of Human Capital, 1986-2001," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/35, New Zealand Treasury.
    32. Winchester, Niven & Greenaway, David, 2007. "Rising wage inequality and capital-skill complementarity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 41-54.
    33. Bound, John & Johnson, George, 1992. "Changes in the Structure of Wages in the 1980's: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 371-392, June.
    34. Greenaway, David & Nelson, Douglas, 2000. "The Assessment: Globalization and Labour-Market Adjustment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(3), pages 1-11, Autumn.
    35. George E. Johnson, 1997. "Changes in Earnings Inequality: The Role of Demand Shifts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 41-54, Spring.
    36. Austria, Myrna S., 2002. "The Philippines in the Global Trading Environment: Looking Back and the Road Ahead," Discussion Papers DP 2002-15, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    37. Slaughter, Matthew J, 1998. "International Trade and Labour-Market Outcomes: Results, Questions, and Policy Options," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1452-1462, September.
    38. Tyers, R. & Yang, Y., 1996. "Trade with Asia and Skill Upgrading: Effects on Factor Markets in the Older Industrial Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 346, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    39. Matthew J. Slaughter, 2000. "What Are the Results of Product-Price Studies and What Can We Learn from Their Differences?," NBER Chapters, in: The Impact of International Trade on Wages, pages 129-169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Robert Z. Lawrence & Carolyn L. Evans, 1996. "Trade and Wages: Insights from the Crystal Ball," NBER Working Papers 5633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Damien NEVEN. & Charles WYPLOSZ, 1996. "Relative Prices, Trade and Restructuring in European Industry," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9615, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Harris, Richard G. & Robertson, Peter E., 2013. "Trade, wages and skill accumulation in the emerging giants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 407-421.
    2. Niven Winchester, 2008. "Trade and Rising Wage Inequality: What Can We Learn from a Decade of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Greenaway & Richard Upward & Peter Wright (ed.), Globalisation and Labour Market Adjustment, chapter 4, pages 54-72, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Viaene, Jean-Marie & Zilcha, Itzhak, 2013. "Public funding of higher education," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 78-89.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ayodele, Olumide S. & Obafemi, Frances N., 2006. "Fiscal and Quasi-Fiscal Effects of the Parallel Exchange Premium in Nigeria," Conference papers 331503, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Niven Winchester, 2008. "Trade and Rising Wage Inequality: What Can We Learn from a Decade of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Greenaway & Richard Upward & Peter Wright (ed.), Globalisation and Labour Market Adjustment, chapter 4, pages 54-72, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Niven WINCHESTER & David GREENAWAY, 2010. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Rising Wage Inequality in the UK," EcoMod2004 330600159, EcoMod.
    4. Caesar B. Cororaton & Erwin L. Corong, 2006. "Agriculture-sector Policies and Poverty in the Philippines: a Computable General-Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2006-09, PEP-MPIA.
    5. Harris, Richard G. & Robertson, Peter E., 2013. "Trade, wages and skill accumulation in the emerging giants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 407-421.
    6. Sabine Engelmann, 2014. "International trade, technological change and wage inequality in the UK economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 223-246, May.
    7. Tyers, Rod, 2015. "International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    8. Winchester, Niven & Greenaway, David, 2007. "Rising wage inequality and capital-skill complementarity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 41-54.
    9. Jorge Saba Arbache, 2001. "Trade Liberalisation and Labor Markets in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence," Studies in Economics 0112, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    10. Lücke, Matthias, 1999. "Sectoral value added prices, TFP growth, and the low-skilled wage in high-income countries," Kiel Working Papers 923, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. John Cockburn & Erwin L. Corong & Caesar B. Cororaton, 2008. "Poverty Effects of the Philippines’ Tariff Reduction Program: Insights from a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 289-319, September.
    12. Nathalie Chusseau & Michel Dumont & Joël Hellier, 2008. "Explaining Rising Inequality: Skill‐Biased Technical Change And North–South Trade," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 409-457, July.
    13. Sébastien Breau & David L. Rigby, 2010. "International trade and wage inequality in Canada," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 55-86, January.
    14. Niven Winchester & David Greenaway & Geoffrey V. Reed, 2006. "Skill Classification and the Effects of Trade on Wage Inequality," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 287-306, July.
    15. Greenaway, David & Nelson, Douglas, 2000. "The Assessment: Globalization and Labour-Market Adjustment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(3), pages 1-11, Autumn.
    16. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2008. "Chapter 3: The effect of globalisation on Western European jobs: curse or blessing?," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 71-104, February.
    17. Mirza, Tasneem & Narayanan, Badri & van Leeuwen, Nico, 2014. "Impact of Chinese growth and trade on labor in developed countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 522-532.
    18. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2023. "Automation and inequality with taxes and transfers," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(1), pages 68-100, February.
    19. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2215-2288 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Engelmann, Sabine, 2012. "International trade, technical change and wage inequality in the U.K. economy," IAB-Discussion Paper 201208, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    21. Edwards, T. Huw & Lücke, Matthias, 2021. "Decomposing the growth of the high-skilled wage premium in an advanced economy open to trade," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 766-784.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade; Labor and Human Capital;

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.