IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/5633.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade and Wages: Insights from the Crystal Ball

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Z. Lawrence
  • Carolyn L. Evans

Abstract

This study uses both a net factor content analysis and a small simulation model to explore the impact on the U.S. labor market of a fivefold increase in imports of manufactured goods from developing countries. The simulation, which is parameterized by the US economy in 1990, involves a balanced trade expansion which displaces almost half of US manufacturing workers who are reemployed in the remaining manufacturing and non-trade sectors. The results show that relative wages of workers with a high school education or less would be depressed, while those with some college education would rise. However, despite the magnitude of the shock, the effects are surprisingly small. Once account is taken of productivity increases, labor force growth and export sector wage premiums, given unitary elasticities of demand and of substitution between workers with different levels of education, relative wages of workers with some college education rise by 3.5 percent, while the real wages of workers with a high school education or less decline by 1.3 percent. The impact of a variety of parameter assumptions is also explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Z. Lawrence & Carolyn L. Evans, 1996. "Trade and Wages: Insights from the Crystal Ball," NBER Working Papers 5633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5633
    Note: ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5633.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Bontout & Sébastien Jean, 1998. "Sensibilité des salaires relatifs aux chocs exogènes de commerce international et de progrès technique: une évaluation d'équilibre général," Working Papers 1998-09, CEPII research center.
    2. Olivier Bontout & Sébastien Jean, 2000. "What Drove Relative Wages in France? Structural Decomposition Analysis in a General Equilibrium Framework, 1970-1992," Working Papers 2000-03, CEPII research center.
    3. Michael Pflüger, 2001. "Trade, capital mobility, and the German labour market," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(3), pages 473-500, September.
    4. Niven Winchester, 2006. "Searching for the Smoking Gun: Did Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers?," Working Papers 0605, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2006.
    5. Michael Pflüger, 2003. "Trade, Technology and Labour Markets: Empirical Controversies in the Light of the Jones Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 328, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Devadason, Evelyn, 2007. "Do Trading Partners Matter for Labour Market Inequality? The Malaysian Case," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 3(1-2).
    7. Niven Winchester, 2006. "Trade and Rising Wage Inequality: What can we learn from a Decade of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis?," Working Papers 0606, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2006.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.