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Tripling Africa´S Primary Exports: What? How? Where?


  • Jörg Mayer
  • Pilar Fajarnes


Income growth in Africa sufficiently high to achieve the internationally agreed development goals implies a rise in the region’s per capita income by the early 2020s to about Latin America’s current level. This would be associated with roughly a tripling of Africa’s primary exports. Increased African supply on world commodity markets would tend to make prices lower, but not by much, given the smallness of its market shares. Rising global demand from sustained rapid growth in natural-resource-poor Asian countries, particularly China, would moderate, or even compensate, such a potential fall in prices and provide sizeable new opportunities for Africa’s primary exports. In Africa, extractive industries would be poised best to benefit directly from China’s rising imports, while exporters of agricultural products would be more likely to benefit indirectly from rising world market prices associated with Asia’s growing primary imports.

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  • Jörg Mayer & Pilar Fajarnes, 2005. "Tripling Africa´S Primary Exports: What? How? Where?," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 180, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:unc:dispap:180

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jörg Mayer, 2009. "Policy Space: What, for What, and Where?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 27(4), pages 373-395, July.
    2. Herrmann, Michael, 2006. "Agricultural Support Measures of Advanced Countries and Food Insecurity in Developing Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Alessandro Nicita & Valentina Rollo, 2013. "Tariff Preferences As A Determinant For Exports From Sub-Saharan Africa," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 60, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    4. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Brümmer, Bernhard & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2015. "The Implication of European Union’s Food Regulations on Developing Countries: Food Safety Standards, Entry Price System and Africa’s Export," Discussion Papers 198719, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    5. Adolph, Christopher & Quince, Vanessa & Prakash, Aseem, 2017. "The Shanghai Effect: Do Exports to China Affect Labor Practices in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Sebastian Dullien, 2009. "Central Banking, Financial Institutions And Credit Creation In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 193, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    7. Martina Metzger, 2008. "Regional Cooperation And Integration In Sub-Saharan Africa," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 189, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    8. Adrian Wood & Jörg Mayer, 2011. "Has China de-industrialised other developing countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(2), pages 325-350, June.
    9. Nicita, Alessandro & Rollo, Valentina, 2015. "Market Access Conditions and Sub-Saharan Africa’s Exports Diversification," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 254-263.
    10. Enrique Cosio-Pascal, 2008. "The Emerging Of A Multilateral Forum For Debt Restructuring: The Paris Club," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 192, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

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