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Tripling Africa´S Primary Exports: What? How? Where?

  • Jörg Mayer
  • Pilar Fajarnes

Income growth in Africa sufficiently high to achieve the internationally agreed development goals implies a rise in the region’s per capita income by the early 2020s to about Latin America’s current level. This would be associated with roughly a tripling of Africa’s primary exports. Increased African supply on world commodity markets would tend to make prices lower, but not by much, given the smallness of its market shares. Rising global demand from sustained rapid growth in natural-resource-poor Asian countries, particularly China, would moderate, or even compensate, such a potential fall in prices and provide sizeable new opportunities for Africa’s primary exports. In Africa, extractive industries would be poised best to benefit directly from China’s rising imports, while exporters of agricultural products would be more likely to benefit indirectly from rising world market prices associated with Asia’s growing primary imports.

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Paper provided by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in its series UNCTAD Discussion Papers with number 180.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:unc:dispap:180
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  1. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," Center for Development Economics 2002-09, Department of Economics, Williams College.
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  8. M�ns S–derbom & Francis Teal, 2003. "Are Manufacturing Exports the Key to Economic Success in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
  9. Morisset, Jacques, 1998. "Unfair Trade? The Increasing Gap between World and Domestic Prices in Commodity Markets during the Past 25 Years," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 503-26, September.
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