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Tripling Africa's Primary Exports: What, How, Where?

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  • Jorg Mayer
  • Pilar Fajarnes

Abstract

Income growth in Africa that is high enough to achieve the internationally agreed development goals implies a rise in the region's per capita income by the early 2020s to about Latin America's current level. The paper shows that such income growth would be associated roughly with a nine-fold increase in Africa's manufactured exports, but also with a tripling of its primary exports, which in absolute terms would account for two-thirds of the increase in the region's total exports. Focusing on the demand potential for such an increase in Africa's primary exports, the paper argues that rising global demand from sustained rapid growth in natural-resource-poor Asian countries, particularly China, provides sizeable new opportunities for Africa's primary exports. In Africa, extractive industries are poised best to benefit directly from China's rising imports, while exporters of agricultural products are more likely to benefit indirectly from rising world market prices associated with Asia's growing primary imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorg Mayer & Pilar Fajarnes, 2008. "Tripling Africa's Primary Exports: What, How, Where?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 80-102.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:44:y:2008:i:1:p:80-102
    DOI: 10.1080/00220380701722324
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    1. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:10:p:2277-2300 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jörg Mayer, 2009. "Policy Space: What, for What, and Where?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 27(4), pages 373-395, July.
    3. Alessandro Nicita & Valentina Rollo, 2013. "Tariff Preferences As A Determinant For Exports From Sub-Saharan Africa," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 60, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    4. Enrique Cosio-Pascal, 2008. "The Emerging Of A Multilateral Forum For Debt Restructuring: The Paris Club," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 192, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    5. Martina Metzger, 2008. "Regional Cooperation And Integration In Sub-Saharan Africa," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 189, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    6. Adrian Wood & Jörg Mayer, 2011. "Has China de-industrialised other developing countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(2), pages 325-350, June.
    7. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Brümmer, Bernhard & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2015. "The Implication of European Union’s Food Regulations on Developing Countries: Food Safety Standards, Entry Price System and Africa’s Export," Discussion Papers 198719, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    8. Nicita, Alessandro & Rollo, Valentina, 2015. "Market Access Conditions and Sub-Saharan Africa’s Exports Diversification," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 254-263.
    9. Adolph, Christopher & Quince, Vanessa & Prakash, Aseem, 2017. "The Shanghai Effect: Do Exports to China Affect Labor Practices in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-18.
    10. Herrmann, Michael, 2006. "Agricultural Support Measures of Advanced Countries and Food Insecurity in Developing Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Sebastian Dullien, 2009. "Central Banking, Financial Institutions And Credit Creation In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 193, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

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