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Tripling Africa's Primary Exports: What, How, Where?

  • Jorg Mayer
  • Pilar Fajarnes

Income growth in Africa that is high enough to achieve the internationally agreed development goals implies a rise in the region's per capita income by the early 2020s to about Latin America's current level. The paper shows that such income growth would be associated roughly with a nine-fold increase in Africa's manufactured exports, but also with a tripling of its primary exports, which in absolute terms would account for two-thirds of the increase in the region's total exports. Focusing on the demand potential for such an increase in Africa's primary exports, the paper argues that rising global demand from sustained rapid growth in natural-resource-poor Asian countries, particularly China, provides sizeable new opportunities for Africa's primary exports. In Africa, extractive industries are poised best to benefit directly from China's rising imports, while exporters of agricultural products are more likely to benefit indirectly from rising world market prices associated with Asia's growing primary imports.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Development Studies.

Volume (Year): 44 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 80-102

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:44:y:2008:i:1:p:80-102
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  1. Vernon W. Ruttan, 2002. "Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 161-184, Fall.
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  6. M�ns S–derbom & Francis Teal, 2003. "Are Manufacturing Exports the Key to Economic Success in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
  7. Morisset, Jacques, 1998. "Unfair Trade? The Increasing Gap between World and Domestic Prices in Commodity Markets during the Past 25 Years," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 503-26, September.
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