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Warming break trends and fractional integration in the northern, southern and global temperature anomaly series

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  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    () (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Navarra)

Abstract

This paper deals with the estimation of time trends in temperature anomaly series. However, instead of imposing that the estimated residuals from the time trends are I(0) stationary, we allow them to be fractionally integrated. In this context, a new procedure for testing fractional integration with segmented trends is applied to the northern, southern and global temperature anomaly series. The results show that the three series are fractinally integrated, and the warming effects are substantially higher after the break in all cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Warming break trends and fractional integration in the northern, southern and global temperature anomaly series," Faculty Working Papers 09/09, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  • Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp0909
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    File URL: http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1257096982_WP_UNAV_09_09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wei Biao Wu & Zhibiao Zhao, 2007. "Inference of trends in time series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(3), pages 391-410.
    2. Robinson, P.M. & Iacone, F., 2005. "Cointegration in fractional systems with deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 263-298.
    3. Fomby, Tom & Vogelsang, Tim, 2000. "The Application of Size Robust Trend Analysis to Global Warming Temperature Series," Working Papers 00-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    4. D'Andrade, Kendall, 1992. "The End of an Era," Business Ethics Quarterly, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 379-389, July.
    5. Granger, Clive W. J. & Ding, Zhuanxin, 1996. "Varieties of long memory models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 61-77, July.
    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
    7. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, January.
    8. Park, Rolla Edward & Mitchell, Bridger M., 1980. "Estimating the autocorrelated error model with trended data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 185-201, June.
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