IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uma/periwp/wp218.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is There a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Author

Listed:
  • James Heintz
  • Léonce Ndikumana

Abstract

This working paper examines the question of whether inflation targeting monetary policy is an appropriate framework for sub-Saharan African countries. The paper presents an overview of inflation targeting, reviews the justification for the regime, and summarizes some major critiques. Monetary policy responses to inflation depend on the source of inflationary pressures. Therefore, the determinants of inflation in African countries areinvestigated, using dynamic panel data, and the implications for inflation targeting are discussed. These issues are examined in greater detail for the two African countries which have formally adopted inflation targeting, South Africa and Ghana. The analysis is placed in the context of the global economic crisis. The paper concludes with a discussion of alternative approaches to monetary policies and the institutional constraints that would need to be addressed to allow central banks to play a stronger developmental role in sub-Saharan African countries.

Suggested Citation

  • James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Is There a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers wp218, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  • Handle: RePEc:uma:periwp:wp218
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://per.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_201-250/WP218.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
    2. Gerald Epstein, 2008. "An employment targeting framework for central bank policy in South Africa," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 243-258.
    3. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    5. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Denzau, Arthur T. & Keil, Manfred W. & Sitthiyot, Thitithep & Willett, Thomas D., 2004. "When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 519-532, September.
    6. Philip Arestis & Fernando Ferrari-Filho & Luiz Fernando de Paula, 2011. "Inflation targeting in Brazil," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 127-148.
    7. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2007. "Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(5), pages 705-744, November.
    8. Régis Barnichon & Shanaka J. Peiris, 2008. "Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(5), pages 729-746, November.
    9. Steel, William F. & Aryeetey, Ernest & Hettige, Hemamala & Nissanke, Machiko, 1997. "Informal financial markets under liberalization in four African countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 817-830, May.
    10. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262513374, December.
    13. Kasekende Louis & Brixova Zuzana & Ndikumana Leonce, 2010. "Africa: Africa's Counter-Cyclical Policy Responses to the Crisis," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, January.
    14. John Thornton, 2008. "Money, Output And Inflation In African Economies1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 356-366, September.
    15. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    16. D. Hodge, 2006. "Inflation and growth in South Africa," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 163-180, March.
    17. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: 1999–2006," Chapters, in: Gerald A. Epstein & A. Erinc Yeldan (ed.), Beyond Inflation Targeting, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Gerald Epstein & Erinc Yeldan, 2008. "Inflation targeting, employment creation and economic development: assessing the impacts and policy alternatives," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 131-144.
    19. William Easterly, 2002. "An Identity Crisis? Testing IMF Financial Programming," Working Papers 9, Center for Global Development.
    20. Roberto Frenkel & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy and Employment," Working Papers 19, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    21. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    22. Gerald Epstein, 2007. "Central banks as agents of employment creation," Working Papers 38, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    23. Thandika Mkandawire, 1999. "The political economy of financial reform in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 321-342.
    24. Jannie Rossouw & Vishnu Padayachee, 2009. "Measuring Inflation Credibility: Results Of A First Representative South African Sample," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(2), pages 314-331, June.
    25. Mr. Emilio Sacerdoti, 2005. "Access to Bank Credit in Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Issues and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 2005/166, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Robert Pollin & Mwangi wa Githinji, 2008. "An Employment-Targeted Economic Program for Kenya," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13219.
    27. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 77-146.
    28. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jaime Ros, 2008. "Alternatives to inflation targeting in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 201-214.
    29. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
    30. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
    31. Kevin Nell, 2004. "The structuralist theory of imported inflation: an application to South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1431-1444.
    32. Jose Antonio Cordero, 2008. "Economic growth under alternative monetary regimes: inflation targeting vs real exchange rate targeting," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 145-160.
    33. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    34. Oladipo Olajide, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-26, October.
    35. repec:ilo:ilowps:398678 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ilo:ilowps:467212 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Léonce Ndikumana & Zuzana Brixiova & Kaouther Abderrahim, 2010. "Working Paper 117 - Supporting Africa's Post-Crisis Growth: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies," Working Paper Series 254, African Development Bank.
    3. Mwankemwa, Lusajo P. & Mlamka, Bonaventura, 2022. "Effects of Monetary Policy on Bank’s Credit Dynamics in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(2), March.
    4. Gerson Nhapulo & João Nicolau, 2017. "Assessing Nonlinear Dynamics of Central Bank Reaction Function: The Case of Mozambique," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 28-51, March.
    5. Agu, Ugochukwu. & Evoh, Chijioke J., 2011. "Macroeconomic policy for full and productive and decent employment for all : the case of Nigeria," ILO Working Papers 994672123402676, International Labour Organization.
    6. Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo & Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2018. "Can Monetary Policy drive economic growth? Empirical evidence from Tanzania," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(2), June.
    7. Zuzana Brixiová & Léonce Ndikumana, 2011. "Supporting Africa’s Post-Crisis Growth: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies," Working Papers wp254, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    8. Nana Kwame Akosah & Francis W. Loloh & Maurice Omane-Adjepong, 2018. "Justifying the Adoption and Relevance of Inflation Targeting Framework: A Time-Varying Evidence from Ghana," Papers 1805.11562, arXiv.org.
    9. Epstein, Gerald., 2015. "Development central banking : a review of issues and experiences," ILO Working Papers 994881283402676, International Labour Organization.
    10. Valli, Mohammed & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Is there any causality between inflation and FDI in an ‘inflation targeting’ regime? Evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 60246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ndoricimpa Arcade, 2017. "Working Paper 249 - Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression," Working Paper Series 2359, African Development Bank.
    12. Ahmet Benlialper & Hasan Cömert, 2016. "Implicit asymmetric exchange rate peg under inflation targeting regimes: the case of Turkey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(6), pages 1553-1580.
    13. Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Festus O. Egwaikhide, 2013. "Saving-Investment Nexus In Developing Countries: Does Financial Development Matter?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 119-140, June.
    14. Senbeta, Sisay, 2011. "How applicable are the new keynesian DSGE models to a typical low-income economy?," MPRA Paper 30931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:ilo:ilowps:488128 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Lucas Kamau Njoroge & Sheila Kaminchia, 2012. "Feasibility of inflation targeting in an emerging market: evidence from Kenya," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 146-159, May.
    17. Mr. Arto Kovanen, 2011. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in Ghana?," IMF Working Papers 2011/274, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Working Paper 108 - Is there a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Paper Series 245, African Development Bank.
    2. James Heintz & Robert Pollin, 2008. "Targeting Employment Expansion, Economic Growth and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Outlines of an Alternative Economic Programme for the Region," Published Studies targeting_employment_expa, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    3. Gerald Epstein, 2009. "Rethinking Monetary and Financial Policy: Practical suggestions for monitoring financial stability while generating employment and poverty reduction," Published Studies ilo_epstein11_09, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    4. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    5. Adel Boughrara and Ichrak Dridi, 2017. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Foreign Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 67-86, June.
    6. Wai Ching Poon & Yong Shen Lee, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in ASEAN-10," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(1), pages 141-157, March.
    7. Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja), 2019. "Monetary Policy, Growth and Employment in Developing Areas: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12197, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Andong Zhu & Robert Pollin, 2005. "Inflation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Non-linear Analysis," Working Papers wp109, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    9. Mavikela Nomahlubi & Mhaka Simba & Phiri Andrew, 2019. "The Inflation-Growth Relationship in SSA Inflation-Targeting Countries," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 64(2), pages 84-102, August.
    10. repec:ilo:ilowps:434439 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 455-464, September.
    12. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    13. Robert Pollin & James Heintz, 2017. "Expanding Decent Employment in Kenya: The Role of Monetary Policy, Inflation Control, and the Exchange Rate," Research Report 6, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    14. Singleton,John, 2010. "Central Banking in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521899093.
    15. Epstein, Gerald., 2009. "Rethinking monetary and financial policy : practical suggestions for monitoring financial stability while generating employment and poverty reduction," ILO Working Papers 994344393402676, International Labour Organization.
    16. Carlos Carrasco & Jesus Ferreiro, 2013. "Inflation targeting in Mexico," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 341-372.
    17. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    18. Berganza, Juan Carlos & Broto, Carmen, 2012. "Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 428-444.
    19. Petreski, Marjan, 2013. "Inflation targeting at the crossroads: Evidence from post-communist economies during the crisis," MPRA Paper 47018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Vinayagathasan, Thanabalasingam, 2013. "Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-41.
    21. Zhandos Ybrayev, 2017. "The Prospect Of Inflation Targeting In Kazakhstan," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(1), pages 33-48.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sub-Saharan Africa; inflation; development; monetary policy; finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uma:periwp:wp218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Judy Fogg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/permaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.