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Working Paper 108 - Is there a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Author

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  • James Heintz

    ()

  • Léonce Ndikumana

Abstract

This paper examines the question of whetherinflation targeting monetary policy is anappropriate framework for sub-SaharanAfrican countries. The paper presents anoverview of inflation targeting, reviews thejustification for the regime, and summarizessome major critiques. Monetary policyresponses to inflation depend on the sourceof inflationary pressures. Therefore, thedeterminants of inflation in African countriesare investigated, using dynamic panel data,and the implications for inflation targetingare discussed. These issues are examined ingreater detail for the two African countrieswhich have formally adopted inflationtargeting, South Africa and Ghana. Theanalysis is placed in the context of the globaleconomic crisis. The paper concludes with adiscussion of alternative approaches tomonetary policies and the institutionalconstraints that would need to be addressedto allow central banks to play a strongerdevelopmental role in sub-Saharan Africancountries.

Suggested Citation

  • James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Working Paper 108 - Is there a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Paper Series 245, African Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:245
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Pollin & Mwangi wa Githinji, 2008. "An Employment-Targeted Economic Program for Kenya," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13219, April.
    2. Kevin Nell, 2004. "The structuralist theory of imported inflation: an application to South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1431-1444.
    3. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 77-146.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    5. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: 1999–2006," Chapters,in: Beyond Inflation Targeting, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2007. "Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(5), pages 705-744, November.
    7. Roberto Frenkel & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy and Employment," Working Papers 19, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    8. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
    9. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Denzau, Arthur T. & Keil, Manfred W. & Sitthiyot, Thitithep & Willett, Thomas D., 2004. "When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 519-532, September.
    10. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    11. John Thornton, 2008. "Money, Output And Inflation In African Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 356-366, September.
    12. Thandika Mkandawire, 1999. "The political economy of financial reform in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 321-342.
    13. Oladipo Olajide, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-26, October.
    14. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Can monetary policy drive economic growth? empirical evidence from Tanzania," Working Papers 21122, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:ilo:ilowps:488128 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Epstein, Gerald., 2015. "Development central banking : a review of issues and experiences," ILO Working Papers 994881283402676, International Labour Organization.
    4. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:1:p:28-51 is not listed on IDEAS

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