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Services and the Decline of the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio

Author

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  • Margarida Duarte

Abstract

A decline in the employment-to-population ratio since 2000 follows several decades of upward trend. The sharp decline in manufacturing employment that started around 2000 has been proposed as the prime contributor to the decline in overall employment. I show that the key factor in the reversal of trend in the employment ratio is a marked slowdown in the growth of service employment. A standard model of structural transformation is broadly consistent with the changing patterns of sectoral employment in the U.S. economy between 1960 and 2019 and highlights the importance of convergence in labor force participation of women.

Suggested Citation

  • Margarida Duarte, 2020. "Services and the Decline of the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio," Working Papers tecipa-653, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-653
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    File URL: https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/public/workingPapers/tecipa-653.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment; manufacturing; services; productivity; structural transformation; labor force; women.;

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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