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The Decline of the U.S. Manufacturing: An Explanation from Structural Change

  • Huang, Zongye

In this paper, I develop a three-sector model that is able to fully explain the postwar structural transformation process experienced by the United States from 1950 to 2005. The model have multiple consumption goods which are produced using dierent factor intensities. The closed economy version of the model estimates the trends from 1950 to 1980 very well, but is not able to traces the labor movements since 1980s. An intuitive idea that would improves the performance of the model is to connect the soaring trade decits with the decline of manufacture sector since then. The modification to the model is simple: keeping the trade balance/GDP ratio as in the data, I evaluate the model to estimate the labor allocations. The results of this trade balance augmented model replicate the structural change over the whole sample period at great accuracy. This result might support the argument that trade imbalances have a substantial eect on the labor markets.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29919.

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Date of creation: 28 Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29919
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  1. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Poschke, Markus, 2009. "Structural Change out of Agriculture: Labor Push versus Labor Pull," IZA Discussion Papers 4247, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Howard J. Shatz, 1994. "Trade and Jobs in Manufacturing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 1-84.
  3. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "The Role of the Structural Transformation in Aggregate Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 129-173, February.
  4. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher Pissarides, 2005. "Structural change in a multi-sector model of growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4656, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Timothy Uy & Kei-Mu Yi & Jing Zhang, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Working Paper Series WP-2013-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Richard Rogerson, 2007. "Structural Transformation and the Deterioration of European Labor Market Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 12889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  8. Gollin, Douglas & Parente, Stephen L. & Rogerson, Richard, 2007. "The food problem and the evolution of international income levels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1230-1255, May.
  9. Akos Valentinyi & Berthold Herrendorf, 2008. "Measuring Factor Income Shares at the Sector Level," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 820-835, October.
  10. Kongsamut, Piyabha & Rebelo, Sérgio & Xie, Danyang, 1997. "Beyond Balanced Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1693, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Buera, Francisco J. & Kaboski, Joseph P., 2012. "Scale and the origins of structural change," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 684-712.
  12. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-52, May.
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