IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rza/ersawp/50.html

Risk and Return Spillovers in a Global Model of the Foreign Exchange Network

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo

    (Australian National University)

  • Daan Steenkamp

    (South African Reserve Bank)

  • Rossouw van Jaarsveld

    (South African Reserve Bank)

Abstract

We developed a network model to capture the dynamic interactions among foreign exchange returns and realised risk measures among 20 developed and emerging market currencies, including the rand (ZAR). We demonstrate how this framework can be used to assess the sensitivity of a given currency to shocks from other currencies and to provide narratives contextualising currency movements, focusing on the ZAR. We show that variations in the risk-return profile of the USDZAR correlate with variations in the risk-return profile of many other currencies, and that this is especially notable with respect to emerging market currencies. We interpret this as evidence of the ZAR’s role as a bellwether emerging market currency. We show that the model is able to highlight risk transmission channels in a timely manner during foreign exchange flash crashes and periods of heightened financial market uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2024. "Risk and Return Spillovers in a Global Model of the Foreign Exchange Network," ERSA Working Paper Series 50, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    • Handle: RePEc:rza:ersawp:50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ersawps.org/index.php/working-paper-series/article/view/50/61
    File Function: First version, 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arezki, Rabah & Dumitrescu, Elena & Freytag, Andreas & Quintyn, Marc, 2014. "Commodity prices and exchange rate volatility: Lessons from South Africa's capital account liberalization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 96-105.
    2. Rabah Arezki & Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Andreas Freytag & Marc Quintyn, 2014. "Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate: Lessons from South Africa's Capital Account Liberalization," Post-Print hal-01385922, HAL.
    3. Jozef Baruník & Evžen KoÄ enda, 2019. "Total, Asymmetric and Frequency Connectedness between Oil and Forex Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(2_suppl), pages 157-174, December.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    5. Nicholson, William B. & Matteson, David S. & Bien, Jacob, 2017. "VARX-L: Structured regularization for large vector autoregressions with exogenous variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 627-651.
    6. Mert Demirer & Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Estimating global bank network connectedness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, January.
    7. Luchelle Soobyah & Daan Steenkamp, 2019. "The role of the rand as a shock absorber," Working Papers 9254, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Cai, Fang & Howorka, Edward & Wongswan, Jon, 2008. "Informational linkages across trading regions: Evidence from foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1215-1243, December.
    9. Christopher Loewald, 2021. "Macro works a decisiontree approach to exchange rate policy," Working Papers 11009, South African Reserve Bank.
    10. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Nguyen, Viet Hoang & Rafferty, Barry, 2016. "Risk and return spillovers among the G10 currencies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 43-62.
    11. Scott, Robert C & Horvath, Philip A, 1980. "On the Direction of Preference for Moments of Higher Order Than the Variance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 915-919, September.
    12. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    13. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Nguyen, Viet Hoang & Shin, Yongcheol, 2021. "Measuring the Connectedness of the Global Economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 899-919.
    14. Shakill Hassan, 2015. "Speculative Flows Exchange Rate Volatility and Monetary Policy the South African Experience," Working Papers 6610, South African Reserve Bank.
    15. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    16. repec:rza:wpaper:279 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Tarassow, Artur, 2022. "Bootstrap-based probabilistic analysis of spillover scenarios in economic and financial networks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    18. Greg Farrell & Shakill Hassan & Nicola Viegi, 2012. "The High-Frequency Response of the Rand-Dollar Rate to Inflation Surprises," Working Papers 201215, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    20. repec:iae:iaewps:wp2016n4 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    22. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Huang, Jingong & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2019. "Financial sector bailouts, sovereign bailouts, and the transfer of credit risk," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 121-142.
    23. Bostanci, Gorkem & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2020. "How connected is the global sovereign credit risk network?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    24. repec:rza:wpaper:790 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Erasmus, Ruan & Steenkamp, Daan, 2022. "South Africa’s yield curve conundrum," MPRA Paper 115398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:rza:ersawp:07 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:rza:ersawp:05 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Olds, Tim & Steenkamp, Daan & Van Jaarsveld, Rossouw, 2021. "The impact of global FX liquidity on the rand," MPRA Paper 116466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, 2022. "CaninformationonthedistributionofZARreturnsbeusedtoimproveSARBsZARforecasts," Working Papers 11035, South African Reserve Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Steenkamp, Daan & Jaarsveld, Rossouw van, 2025. "Risk and return spillovers among developed and emerging market currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Lastrapes, William D. & Wiesen, Thomas F.P., 2025. "Regional bank failures and volatility transmission," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Ogbuabor, Jonathan E. & Anthony-Orji, Onyinye I. & Manasseh, Charles O. & Orji, Anthony, 2020. "Measuring the dynamics of COMESA output connectedness with the global economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    4. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Kočenda, Evžen & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2024. "Detecting statistically significant changes in connectedness: A bootstrap-based technique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Wiesen, Thomas F.P. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Oliyide, Johnson & Afatsao, Richard, 2024. "Does high volatility increase connectedness? A study of Asian equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    6. Tomohiro Ando & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2022. "Quantile Connectedness: Modeling Tail Behavior in the Topology of Financial Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2401-2431, April.
    7. Albrecht, Peter & Kočenda, Evžen, 2024. "Volatility connectedness on the central European forex markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Huang, Jingong & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2019. "Financial sector bailouts, sovereign bailouts, and the transfer of credit risk," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 121-142.
    9. Nong, Huifu & Yu, Ziliang & Li, Yang, 2024. "Financial shock transmission in China's banking and housing sectors: A network analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 701-723.
    10. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2022. "Long-memory and volatility spillovers across petroleum futures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    11. Chuliá, Helena & Fernández, Julián & Uribe, Jorge M., 2018. "Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 83-102.
    12. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Nguyen, Viet Hoang & Rafferty, Barry, 2016. "Risk and return spillovers among the G10 currencies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 43-62.
    13. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Tarassow, Artur, 2022. "Bootstrap-based probabilistic analysis of spillover scenarios in economic and financial networks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    14. Chiang, Shu-hen & Chen, Chien-Fu, 2022. "From systematic to systemic risk among G7 members: Do the stock or real estate markets matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    16. Finta, Marinela Adriana, 2025. "Risk premia-return spillovers among commodity-U.S. equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    17. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2017. "Asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 39-56.
    18. Wen, Tiange & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2020. "Volatility connectedness in global foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    19. Cheng, Tingting & Liu, Junli & Yao, Wenying & Zhao, Albert Bo, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility connectedness network of global stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Cheng, Tingting & Liu, Fei & Liu, Junli & Yao, Wenying, 2024. "Tail connectedness: Measuring the volatility connectedness network of equity markets during crises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rza:ersawp:50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maggi Sigg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ersawps.org/index.php/working-paper-series/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.