IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rug/rugwps/03-213.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investigating Purchasing Patterns for Financial Services using Markov, MTD and MTDg Models

Author

Listed:
  • A. PRINZIE
  • D. VAN DEN POEL

Abstract

In the past, several authors have found evidence for the existence of a priority pattern of acquisition for durable goods, as well as for financial services. Its usefulness lies in the fact that if the position of a particular customer in this acquisition sequence is known, one can predict what service will be acquired next by that customer. In this paper, we analyse purchase sequences of financial services to identify cross-selling opportunities as part of a CRM (customer relationship management). Hereby, special attention is paid to transitions, which might encourage bank- or insurance only customers to become financial services customers. We introduce the Mixture Transition Distribution model (MTD) as a parsimonious alternative to the Markov model for use in the analysis of marketing problems. An interesting extension on the MTD model is the MTDg model, which is able to represent situations where the relationship between each lag and the current state differs. We illustrate the MTD and MTDg model on acquisition sequences of customers of a major financial-services company and compare the fit of these models with that of the corresponding Markov model. Our results are in favor of the MTD and MTDg models. Therefore, the MTD as well as the MTDg transition matrices are investigated in order to reveal cross-sell opportunities. The results are of great value to the product managers as they clarify the customer flows among product groups. In some cases, the lag-specific transition matrices of the MTDg model are better for the guidance of cross-sell actions than the general transition matrix of the MTD model.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Prinzie & D. Van Den Poel, 2003. "Investigating Purchasing Patterns for Financial Services using Markov, MTD and MTDg Models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/213, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:03/213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_03_213.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kasulis, Jack J & Lusch, Robert F & Stafford, Edward F, Jr, 1979. "Consumer Acquisition Patterns for Durable Goods," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 47-57, June.
    2. Hauser, John R & Urban, Glen L, 1986. "The Value Priority Hypotheses for Consumer Budget Plans," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 446-462, March.
    3. Wallace J. Hopp, 1987. "A Sequential Model of R&D Investment Over an Unbounded Time Horizon," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 500-508, April.
    4. Clarke, Yvonne & Soutar, Geoffrey N, 1982. "Consumer Acquisition Patterns for Durable Goods: Australian Evidence," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 456-460, March.
    5. Berger, Allen N. & Demsetz, Rebecca S. & Strahan, Philip E., 1999. "The consolidation of the financial services industry: Causes, consequences, and implications for the future," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 135-194, February.
    6. Leo Katz & Charles Proctor, 1959. "The concept of configuration of interpersonal relations in a group as a time-dependent stochastic process," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 24(4), pages 317-327, December.
    7. Hebden, J J & Pickering, J F, 1974. "Patterns of Acquisition of Consumer Durables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 36(2), pages 67-94, May.
    8. Berger, Allen N., 2003. "The efficiency effects of a single market for financial services in Europe," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 150(3), pages 466-481, November.
    9. Stafford, Edward Jr. & Kasulis, Jack J. & Lusch, Robert F., 1982. "Consumer behavior in accumulating household financial assets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 397-417, December.
    10. Van den Poel, Dirk & Lariviere, Bart, 2004. "Customer attrition analysis for financial services using proportional hazard models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 196-217, August.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Elena DINUCA, 2011. "Using web mining in e-commerce applications," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 65-74, September.
    2. J. Burez & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "CRM at a Pay-TV Company: Using Analytical Models to Reduce Customer Attrition by Targeted Marketing for Subscription Services," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/348, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prinzie, Anita & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2006. "Investigating purchasing-sequence patterns for financial services using Markov, MTD and MTDg models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(3), pages 710-734, May.
    2. Paas, L.J. & Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Vermunt, J.K., 2004. "Extending dynamic segmentation with lead generation : A latent class Markov analysis of financial product portfolios," Discussion Paper 2004-1, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Paas, Leonard J., 1998. "Mokken scaling characteristic sets and acquisition patterns of durable- and financial products," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 353-376, June.
    4. Paas, L.J. & Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Vermunt, J.K., 2004. "Extending dynamic segmentation with lead generation : A latent class Markov analysis of financial product portfolios," Other publications TiSEM 5c26b098-ff27-42d1-a539-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Koetter, M. & Bos, J.W.B. & Heid, F. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M. & Porath, D., 2007. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3200-3217, October.
    6. Nguyen Thang Dao & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2021. "The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 431-474, April.
    7. Oppewal, Harmen & Paas, Leonard J. & Crouch, Geoffrey I. & Huybers, Twan, 2010. "Segmenting consumers based on how they spend a tax rebate: An analysis of the Australian stimulus payment," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 510-519, August.
    8. A. Prinzie & D. Van Den Poel, 2007. "Predicting home-appliance acquisition sequences: Markov/Markov for Discrimination and survival analysis for modeling sequential information in NPTB models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/442, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Leonard Paas, 2006. "Acquisition pattern analysis for evolutionary database marketing," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 805-812, July.
    10. Danielsson, J. & de Haan, L. & Peng, L. & de Vries, C. G., 2001. "Using a Bootstrap Method to Choose the Sample Fraction in Tail Index Estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 226-248, February.
    11. Antonio Rubia & Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2006. "Forecasting the conditional covariance matrix of a portfolio under long-run temporal dependence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 439-458.
    12. Mark Carlson & Kris James Mitchener, 2009. "Branch Banking as a Device for Discipline: Competition and Bank Survivorship during the Great Depression," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 165-210, April.
    13. Koetter Michael, 2008. "An Assessment of Bank Merger Success in Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 232-264, May.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2004:i:4:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. J. Christina Wang, 2003. "Merger-related cost savings in the production of bank services," Working Papers 03-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    17. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    18. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    19. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2012. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1176-1187.
    20. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude, 1995. "Rendements boursiers et inflation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 71(4), pages 455-480, décembre.
    21. Sabur Mollah & Asma Mobarek, 2009. "Market volatility across countries – evidence from international markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 257-274, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:03/213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferugbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nathalie Verhaeghe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferugbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.