IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbiwp/0247.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investigating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Transpacific Rebalancing

Author

Listed:
  • Thorbecke, Willem

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Komoto, Ginalyn

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role that exchange rate changes can play in rebalancing transpacific trade. It presents evidence from a gravity model indicating that the exports from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to the United States (US) are a key outlier in the global economy and that imbalances between the PRC and the US have remained large during the financial crisis that began in September 2008. It then reports that an appreciation of the yuan against the dollar would be required to rebalance bilateral trade between the US and the PRC. In the case of multilateral trade between the US and the rest of the world, on the other hand, the evidence indicates that a depreciation of the dollar would not substantially reduce the US global trade deficit. In the case of Asia’s exports, results presented here and elsewhere indicate that: (i) sophisticated exports produced within regional production networks depend on exchange rates throughout the region; (ii) labor-intensive exports from developing Asian countries are strongly influenced by each country’s own exchange rate; (iii) developing Asian countries compete extensively with each other in exports to third markets; (iv) a currency appreciation in developing Asia would increase capital and consumption goods imports; and (v) exchange rate volatility deters parts and components trade in Asia. These findings imply that Asia and the rest of the world would benefit if East Asian currencies could appreciate together against external currencies while maintaining relative currency stability within the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorbecke, Willem & Komoto, Ginalyn, 2010. "Investigating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Transpacific Rebalancing," ADBI Working Papers 247, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0247
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.adbi.org/files/2010.08.08.wp247.effect.rate.changes.transpacific.rebalancing.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, pages 275-306.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "Again on trade elasticities: evidence from a selected sample of countries," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-287, December.
    2. Thorbecke, Willem & Kato, Atsuyuki, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Japanese Consumption Exports," ADBI Working Papers 298, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Thorbecke, Willem, 2015. "China–US trade: A global outlier," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 47-58.
    4. Levy, Philip, 2011. "The United States and the PRC: Macroeconomic Imbalances and Economic Diplomacy," ADBI Working Papers 328, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Bernhardt, Thomas, 2014. "How promising is South-South trade as a contributor to economic development in Asia and South America? Insights from estimating income elasticities of import demand," MPRA Paper 56413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Murad, S. M. Woahid, 2012. "Bilateral Export and Import Demand Functions of Bangladesh: A Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 36919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. THORBECKE, Willem, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Japanese Electronics Industry," Discussion papers 12019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Bernhardt, Thomas, 2016. "South-South trade and South-North trade: which contributes more to development in Asia and South America? Insights from estimating income elasticities of import demand," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transpacific trade; exchange rate rebalancing;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ADB Institute). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/adbinjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.