IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qed/wpaper/1520.html

How Do Household Coping Strategies Evolve with Increased Food Insecurity? An Examination of Nigeria’s Food Price Shock of 2015-2018

Author

Listed:
  • Justin Quinton

  • Glenn Jenkins

    (Queen's University)

  • Godwin Olasehinde-Williams

    (Department of Economics, Istanbul Ticaret University, Turkey)

Abstract

Faced with a significant devaluation of its currency and a surge in food prices, the Nigerian government prohibited the use of foreign currency for food imports. This essentially blocked the importation of numerous food items under the guise of stimulating domestic output of these staples. Consequently, food prices in Nigeria increased despite a global decline in food prices, and the incidence and severity of food insecurity escalated. This study examines the changes in the types and severity of coping mechanisms for food insecurity resulting from the food price shock caused by the oil price crash, currency devaluation and restrictions on foreign exchange. Nigeria’s General Household Survey Panel data from 2012 and 2015, during periods of high oil prices, is compared with data from 2018 when oil prices had remained low, the currency had been devalued, and the treasury had been depleted. Alongside detailed descriptive statistics, logistic and hurdle regressions are employed for statistical analysis. Findings indicate a rise in the percentage of Nigerian households grappling with food insecurity from 2015 to 2018. During this period, 68.7% of households resorted to at least one coping mechanism, 31.8% adopted six or more coping strategies, and 43.2% resorted to severe coping strategies. The issue stems not primarily from natural disasters or conflicts but from a failure in macroeconomic and agricultural economic policies. Our findings confirm that these policies come at great cost, particularly to female-headed households, single-parent households, households headed by elderly people, and other vulnerable populations, pushing them deeper into food insecurity.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Quinton & Glenn Jenkins & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams, 2024. "How Do Household Coping Strategies Evolve with Increased Food Insecurity? An Examination of Nigeria’s Food Price Shock of 2015-2018," Working Paper 1520, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1520
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/wpaper/qed_wp_1520.pdf
    File Function: First version 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    2. Maurice Mutisya & Moses W. Ngware & Caroline W. Kabiru & Ngianga-bakwin Kandala, 2016. "The effect of education on household food security in two informal urban settlements in Kenya: a longitudinal analysis," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(4), pages 743-756, August.
    3. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    4. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    5. Sriroop Chaudhuri & Mimi Roy & Louis M. McDonald & Yves Emendack, 2021. "Coping Behaviours and the concept of Time Poverty: a review of perceived social and health outcomes of food insecurity on women and children," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(4), pages 1049-1068, August.
    6. M. L. Mabuza & G. F. Ortmann & E. Wale, 2016. "Frequency and extent of employing food insecurity coping strategies among rural households: determinants and implications for policy using evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 255-269, February.
    7. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    8. Mahwish Munawar & Xu Shiwei & Yu Wen & Muhammad Luqman & Mukkram Ali Tahir, 2021. "Investigating Relationship of Food Security with Market Approachability with respect to Household Food Insecurity Access Index," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 3(3), pages 130-136.
    9. Christiaensen, Luc J.M. & Boisvert, Richard N., 2000. "On Measuring Household Food Vulnerability: Case Evidence from Northern Mali," Working Papers 127676, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    10. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    11. Seid Sani & Biruk Kemaw, 2019. "Analysis of households food insecurity and its coping mechanisms in Western Ethiopia," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. Owoo, Nkechi S. & Upton, Joanna & Bageant, Elizabeth, "undated". "Food Insecurity and Family Structure in Nigeria," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258469, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 1999. "Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-4.
    14. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    15. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    16. Hoa K. Hoang, 2018. "Analysis of food demand in Vietnam and short†term impacts of market shocks on quantity and calorie consumption," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(1), pages 83-95, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Justin Quinton & Glenn P. Jenkins & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams, 2024. "How Do Household Coping Strategies Evolve with Increased Food Insecurity? An Examination of Nigeria's Food Price Shock of 2015-2018," Development Discussion Papers 2024-04, JDI Executive Programs.
    2. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The great plunge in oil prices: causes, consequences, and policy responses," CAMA Working Papers 2015-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Alejandro de la Fuente & Eduardo Ortiz-Juárez & Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán, 2018. "Living on the edge: vulnerability to poverty and public transfers in Mexico," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 10-27, January.
    4. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    5. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Francisco Ceballos & Manuel A. Hernandez & Cynthia Paz, 2021. "Short‐term impacts of COVID‐19 on food security and nutrition in rural Guatemala: Phone‐based farm household survey evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 477-494, May.
    7. Cuesta, José & Htenas, Aira & Tiwari, Sailesh, 2014. "Monitoring global and national food price crises," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 84-94.
    8. Rodriguez-Takeuchi, Laura & Imai, Katsushi S., 2013. "Food price surges and poverty in urban Colombia: New evidence from household survey data," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 227-236.
    9. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    10. Rudolf, Robert, 2019. "The impact of maize price shocks on household food security: Panel evidence from Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-54.
    11. Negi, Digvijay S., 2022. "Global food price surge, in-kind transfers and household welfare: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Martin, William J., 2012. "Managing High and Volatile Food Prices," Trade Issues Papers 142732, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    13. Cali,Massimiliano & Hollweg,Claire Honore & Ruppert Bulmer,Elizabeth N., 2015. "Seeking shared prosperity through trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7314, The World Bank.
    14. Martey, Edward & Onumah, Justina Adwoa & Adusah-Poku, Frank, 2025. "Maize price Shocks, food consumption and the mediating role of access to market in Ghana," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Nakelse, Tebila & Dalton, Timothy J. & Hendricks, Nathan P. & Hodjo, Manzamasso, 2018. "Are smallholder farmers better or worse off from an increase in the international price of cereals?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 213-223.
    16. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Belaid, Fateh & Shah, Nida, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between oil price shocks and the world food prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Giray GOZGOR & Baris KABLAMACI, 2014. "The linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices in the light of the perceived global risk," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60(7), pages 332-342.
    18. Kym Anderson & Maros Ivanic & William J. Martin, 2014. "Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 311-339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Julian M. Alston & William J. Martin & Philip G. Pardey, 2014. "Influences of Agricultural Technology on the Size and Importance of Food Price Variability," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 13-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Valera, Harold Glenn & Mayorga, Joaquin & Pede, Valerien & Mishra, Ashok, 2022. "Estimating Food Demand and the Impact of Market Shocks on Food Expenditures: The Case for the Philippines and Missing Price Data," MPRA Paper 123390, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Babcock (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qedquca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.