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Probabilistic Sophistication And Reverse Bayesianism

Author

Listed:
  • Edi Karni

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Marie-Louise Viero

    (Queen's University)

Abstract

This paper extends our earlier work on reverse Bayesianism by relaxing theassumption that decision makers abide by expected utility theory, assuming instead weaker axioms that merely imply that they are probabilistically sophisticated. We show that our main results, namely, (modified)representation theorems and corresponding rules for updating beliefs over expanding state spaces and null events that constitute "reverse Bayesianism," remain valid.

Suggested Citation

  • Edi Karni & Marie-Louise Viero, 2013. "Probabilistic Sophistication And Reverse Bayesianism," Working Paper 1303, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1303
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    File URL: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/qed_wp_1303.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Machina Mark J. & Schmeidler David, 1995. "Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 106-128, October.
    2. Grant, Simon & Polak, Ben, 2006. "Bayesian beliefs with stochastic monotonicity: An extension of Machina and Schmeidler," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 264-282, September.
    3. Pietro Ortoleva, 2012. "Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2410-2436, October.
    4. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November.
    5. Edi Karni & Marie-Louise Vier?, 2013. ""Reverse Bayesianism": A Choice-Based Theory of Growing Awareness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2790-2810, December.
    6. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-686, May.
    7. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 132-132.
    8. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-780, July.
    9. Karni, Edi & Schmeidler, David, 1991. "Utility theory with uncertainty," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 33, pages 1763-1831, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dominiak, Adam & Tserenjigmid, Gerelt, 2022. "Ambiguity under growing awareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2. Karni, Edi & Vierø, Marie-Louise, 2017. "Awareness of unawareness: A theory of decision making in the face of ignorance," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 301-328.
    3. Antonio Díaz & Carlos Esparcia, 2021. "Dynamic optimal portfolio choice under time-varying risk aversion," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 166, pages 1-22.
    4. Surajeet Chakravarty & David Kelsey & Joshua C. Teitelbaum, 2020. "Operationalizing Reverse Bayesianism," Discussion Papers 2020-18, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    5. Marcus Pivato, 2020. "Subjective expected utility with a spectral state space," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(2), pages 249-313, March.
    6. Pamela Giustinelli & Nicola Pavoni, 2017. "The Evolution of Awareness and Belief Ambiguity in the Process of High School Track Choice," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 25, pages 93-120, April.
    7. Grant Simon & Guerdjikova Ani & Quiggin John, 2021. "Ambiguity and Awareness: A Coherent Multiple Priors Model," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 571-612, June.
    8. Dominiak, Adam & Tserenjigmid, Gerelt, 2018. "Belief consistency and invariant risk preferences," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 157-162.
    9. Christoph K. Becker & Tigran Melkonyan & Eugenio Proto & Andis Sofianos & Stefan T. Trautmann, 2020. "Reverse Bayesianism: Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events," CESifo Working Paper Series 8662, CESifo.
    10. Adam Dominiak & Ani Guerdjikova, 2021. "Pessimism and optimism towards new discoveries," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 321-370, May.
    11. Vierø, Marie-Louise, 2021. "An intertemporal model of growing awareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    12. Chakravarty, Surajeet & Kelsey, David & Teitelbaum, Joshua C., 2022. "Reverse Bayesianism and act independence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Awareness; Unawareness; Reverse Bayesianism; Probabilistic sophistication;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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