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Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News

Author

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  • Pietro Ortoleva

Abstract

Bayes' rule has two well-known limitations: 1) it does not model the reaction to zero-probability events; 2) a sizable empirical evidence documents systematic violations of it. We characterize axiomatically an alternative updating rule, the Hypothesis Testing model. According to it, the agent follows Bayes' rule if she receives information to which she assigned a probability above a threshold. Otherwise, she looks at a prior over priors, updates it using Bayes' rule for second-order priors, and chooses the prior to which the updated prior over priors assigns the highest likelihood. We also present an application to equilibrium refinement in game theory. (JEL D11, D81, D83)

Suggested Citation

  • Pietro Ortoleva, 2012. "Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2410-2436, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:6:p:2410-36
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefania Minardi & Andrei Savochkin, 2016. "Subjective Contingencies and Limited Bayesian Updating," Working Papers w0222, New Economic School (NES).
    2. Riella, Gil, 2013. "Preference for Flexibility and Dynamic Consistency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2467-2482.
    3. Bogaçhan Çelen & Sen Geng & Huihui Li, 2018. "Belief Error and Non-Bayesian Social Learning: An Experimental Evidence," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_022, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. repec:eee:mateco:v:70:y:2017:i:c:p:90-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dipjyoti Majumdar & Artyom Shneyerov & Huan Xie, 2010. "How Optimism Leads to Price Discovery and Efficiency in a Dynamic Matching Market," Working Papers 10004, Concordia University, Department of Economics.
    6. Suehyun Kwon, 2019. "Behavioral Players in a Game," CESifo Working Paper Series 7504, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Robert C. Merton & Richard T. Thakor, 2015. "Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 21258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel Hauser, 2018. "Social Learning with Model Misspeciification: A Framework and a Robustness Result," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Jul 2018.
    9. repec:spr:joecth:v:66:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00199-017-1064-x is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Heng Chen & Wing Suen, 2016. "Falling Dominoes: A Theory of Rare Events and Crisis Contagion," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 228-255, February.
    11. Ellis, Andrew, 2018. "Foundations for optimal inattention," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 56-94.
    12. Edi Karni & Marie-Louise Vierø, 2015. "Probabilistic sophistication and reverse Bayesianism," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 189-208, June.
    13. Roberta De Filippis & Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehiel & Toru Kitagawa, 2018. "Non-Bayesian updating in a social learning experiment," CeMMAP working papers CWP39/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. repec:eee:jetheo:v:179:y:2019:i:c:p:455-475 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sun, Lan, 2016. "Hypothesis testing equilibrium in signaling games," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 557, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    16. Sinkey, Michael, 2015. "How do experts update beliefs? Lessons from a non-market environment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 55-63.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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