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Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News

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  • Pietro Ortoleva

Abstract

Bayes' rule has two well-known limitations: 1) it does not model the reaction to zero-probability events; 2) a sizable empirical evidence documents systematic violations of it. We characterize axiomatically an alternative updating rule, the Hypothesis Testing model. According to it, the agent follows Bayes' rule if she receives information to which she assigned a probability above a threshold. Otherwise, she looks at a prior over priors, updates it using Bayes' rule for second-order priors, and chooses the prior to which the updated prior over priors assigns the highest likelihood. We also present an application to equilibrium refinement in game theory. (JEL D11, D81, D83)

Suggested Citation

  • Pietro Ortoleva, 2012. "Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2410-2436, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:6:p:2410-36
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefania Minardi & Andrei Savochkin, 2016. "Subjective Contingencies and Limited Bayesian Updating," Working Papers w0222, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    2. Riella, Gil, 2013. "Preference for Flexibility and Dynamic Consistency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2467-2482.
    3. repec:eee:jetheo:v:173:y:2018:i:c:p:56-94 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:mateco:v:70:y:2017:i:c:p:90-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dipjyoti Majumdar & Artyom Shneyerov & Huan Xie, 2010. "How Optimism Leads to Price Discovery and Efficiency in a Dynamic Matching Market," Working Papers 10004, Concordia University, Department of Economics.
    6. Edi Karni & Marie-Louise Vierø, 2015. "Probabilistic sophistication and reverse Bayesianism," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 189-208, June.
    7. Robert C. Merton & Richard T. Thakor, 2015. "Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 21258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sun, Lan, 2016. "Hypothesis testing equilibrium in signaling games," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 557, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    9. Sinkey, Michael, 2015. "How do experts update beliefs? Lessons from a non-market environment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 55-63.
    10. Heng Chen & Wing Suen, 2016. "Falling Dominoes: A Theory of Rare Events and Crisis Contagion," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 228-255, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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