"Reverse Bayesianism": A Choice-Based Theory of Growing Awareness
This paper invokes the axiomatic approach to explore the notion of growing awareness in the context of decision making under uncertainty. It introduces a new approach to modeling the expanding universe of a decision maker in the wake of becoming aware of new consequences, new acts, and new links between acts and consequences. New consequences or new acts represent genuine expansions of the decision maker's universe, while the discovery of new links between acts and consequences renders nonnull events that were considered null before the discovery. The expanding universe, or state space, is accompanied by extension of the set of acts. The preference relations over the expanding sets of acts are linked by a new axiom, dubbed act independence, which is motivated by the idea that decision makers have unchanging preferences over the satisfaction of basic needs. The main results are representation theorems and corresponding rules for updating beliefs over expanding state spaces and null events that have the flavor of "reverse Bayesianism".
|Date of creation:||Mar 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3400 North Charles Street Baltimore, MD 21218|
Web page: http://www.econ.jhu.edu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Modica, Salvatore & Rustichini, Aldo, 1999. "Unawareness and Partitional Information Structures," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 265-298, May.
- Eddie Dekel & Barton L. Lipman & Aldo Rustichini, 1998. "Standard State-Space Models Preclude Unawareness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 159-174, January.
- Li, Jing, 2009. "Information structures with unawareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 977-993, May.
- Grant, Simon & Quiggin, John, 2009.
"Inductive Reasoning About Unawareness,"
Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers
151188, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
- Grant, Simon & Quiggin, John, 2012. "Inductive Reasoning About Unawareness," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151202, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
- Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2009. "Inductive reasoning about unawareness," Risk & Uncertainty Working Papers WPR09_1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
- Brian Hill, 2010. "Awareness Dynamics," Post-Print hal-00521801, HAL.
- Joseph Y. Halpern, 2000.
"Alternative Semantics for Unawareness,"
Game Theory and Information
- HEIFETZ, Aviad & MEIER, Martin & SCHIPPER, Burkhard C., 2004.
CORE Discussion Papers
2004059, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2005. "Interactive Unawareness," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 52, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Gilboa,Itzhak, 2009.
"Theory of Decision under Uncertainty,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521741231, November.
- Ehud Lehrer & Roee Teper, 2014. "Extension Rules or What Would the Sage Do?," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 5-22, February.
- Burkhard Schipper, 2011.
"Awareness-Dependent Subjective Expected Utility,"
1022, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Halpern, Joseph Y. & Rego, Leandro Chaves, 2008. "Interactive unawareness revisited," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 232-262, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (None)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.