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"Reverse Bayesianism": A Choice-Based Theory of Growing Awareness

Author

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  • Edi Karni
  • Marie-Louise Vier?

Abstract

This article introduces a new approach to modeling the expanding universe of decision makers in the wake of growing awareness, and invokes the axiomatic approach to model the evolution of decision makers' beliefs as awareness grows. The expanding universe is accompanied by extension of the set of acts, the preference relations over which are linked by a new axiom, invariant risk preferences, asserting that the ranking of lotteries is independent of the set of acts under consideration. The main results are representation theorems and rules for updating beliefs over expanding state spaces and events that have the flavor of "reverse Bayesianism."

Suggested Citation

  • Edi Karni & Marie-Louise Vier?, 2013. ""Reverse Bayesianism": A Choice-Based Theory of Growing Awareness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2790-2810, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:7:p:2790-2810
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.7.2790
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brian Hill, 2010. "Awareness Dynamics," Post-Print hal-00521801, HAL.
    2. Simon Grant & John Quiggin, 2013. "Inductive reasoning about unawareness," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(3), pages 717-755, November.
    3. Halpern, Joseph Y., 2001. "Alternative Semantics for Unawareness," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 321-339, November.
    4. Heifetz, Aviad & Meier, Martin & Schipper, Burkhard C., 2006. "Interactive unawareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 78-94, September.
    5. Halpern, Joseph Y. & Rego, Leandro Chaves, 2008. "Interactive unawareness revisited," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 232-262, January.
    6. Salvatore Modica, 2008. "Unawareness, priors and posteriors," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 31(2), pages 81-94, November.
    7. Ehud Lehrer & Roee Teper, 2014. "Extension Rules or What Would the Sage Do?," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 5-22, February.
    8. Gilboa,Itzhak, 2009. "Theory of Decision under Uncertainty," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521741231, December.
    9. Modica, Salvatore & Rustichini, Aldo, 1999. "Unawareness and Partitional Information Structures," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 265-298, May.
    10. Burkhard Schipper, 2013. "Awareness-dependent subjective expected utility," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 42(3), pages 725-753, August.
    11. Li, Jing, 2009. "Information structures with unawareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 977-993, May.
    12. Eddie Dekel & Barton L. Lipman & Aldo Rustichini, 1998. "Standard State-Space Models Preclude Unawareness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 159-174, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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