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Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin


  • Elie Bouri

    () (USEK Business School, Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, Jounieh, Lebanon)

  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Xuan Vinh Vo

    () (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)


Are price discontinuities in cryptocurrencies jointly related to large swings in geopolitical risk? This is a relevant question to answer given recent news from the press that Bitcoin’s large price swings are driven by large swings in the level of geopolitical risk. We answer this question by examining first the jump incidence of daily returns for Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies via the application of the approach of Laurent et al. (2016) and then by studying the co-jumps using logistic regressions. Preliminary results show that the price behaviour of all cryptocurrencies under study is jumpy. Further analyses show reasonable evidence to imply that co-jumps are significant for the case of Bitcoin only. This finding nicely complements previous studies arguing that Bitcoin is a hedge against geopolitical risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2020. "Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin," Working Papers 202015, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202015

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Νikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "The effects of geopolitical uncertainty on cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.

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    More about this item


    Geopolitical risk; Bitcoin; Cryptocurrencies; Jumps; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

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