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What determines Bitcoin's price over the past decade?

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Muying
  • Zhang, Xinyu
  • Wei, Yunjie
  • Wang, Shouyang

Abstract

We employ a novel three-stage analysis method of ICEEMDAN-Van der Waerden Test-Elastic Net to analyze Bitcoin's price. Our research aims to explain how Bitcoin's price has been formed at different phases of development over the past decade. We have segmented the daily closing price of Bitcoin from November 1, 2013, to December 31, 2023, into five phases, utilizing the ICEEMDAN method to decompose them into intrinsic mode functions, followed by the reconstruction of high-frequency, low-frequency, and trend curves using the Van der Waerden Test. With Elastic Net, we identify the top ten factors impacting the high-frequency, low-frequency, and trend curves during each phase. Our findings reveal a strong correlation between the high-frequency curve, investor sentiment, and daily transaction frequency in the Bitcoin market. The significant rises and falls in the low-frequency curve correspond to important events in the Bitcoin market or global political and economic occurrences. The trend curve is decisive in determining the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin's price. Over the long term, our analysis indicates that Bitcoin's price is influenced predominantly by macroeconomic fundamentals and market vitality. Bitcoin's price is evolving, shifting from focusing on its internal production factors to relying more on external macroeconomic factors. Of the major asset classes, Bitcoin's correlation with stocks has grown the most significantly. Due to Bitcoin's increasing market vitality and the decrease in Bitcoin's issuance speed changing the supply-demand dynamics, Bitcoin's price is on an upward trajectory in the long term. Furthermore, our findings provide insights into Bitcoin's speculative and safe-haven properties. Our work also facilitates more accurate predictions of Bitcoin's future prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Muying & Zhang, Xinyu & Wei, Yunjie & Wang, Shouyang, 2025. "What determines Bitcoin's price over the past decade?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:103:y:2025:i:c:s1057521925002613
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104174
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