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Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin

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  • Elie Bouri
  • Rangan Gupta
  • Xuan Vinh Vo

Abstract

Are price discontinuities in cryptocurrencies jointly related to large swings in geopolitical risk? This is a relevant question to answer given recent news from the press that Bitcoin’s price jumps are driven by jumps in the level of geopolitical risk index. To answer this question, we examine first the jump incidence of daily returns for Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies and then study the co-jumps between cryptocurrencies and the geopolitical risk index using logistic regressions. Our dataset is at the daily frequency and covers the period 30 April 2013 to 31 October 2019. The results show that the price behaviour of all cryptocurrencies under study is jumpy but only Bitcoin jumps are dependent on jumps in the geopolitical risk index. This revealed evidence of significant co-jumps for the case of Bitcoin only nicely complements previous studies arguing that Bitcoin is a hedge against geopolitical risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 150-161, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:2:p:150-161
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1848285
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    Cited by:

    1. Ijaz, Muhammad Shahzad & Ali, Shoaib & Du, Anna Min & Khurram, Mahrukh, 2025. "Analyzing financial market reactions to the Palestine-Israel conflict: An event study perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Mirzat Ullah, 2024. "Dynamic Connectedness between Crypto and Conventional Financial Assets: Novel Findings from Russian Financial Market," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(1), pages 110-135.
    3. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
    4. Bouri, Elie & Jalkh, Naji, 2023. "Spillovers of joint volatility-skewness-kurtosis of major cryptocurrencies and their determinants," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Νikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "The effects of geopolitical uncertainty on cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Kristjanpoller, Werner & Nekhili, Ramzi & Bouri, Elie, 2024. "Blockchain ETFs and the cryptocurrency and Nasdaq markets: Multifractal and asymmetric cross-correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 637(C).
    7. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2024. "Navigating Global Uncertainty: Examining the Effect of Geopolitical Risks on Cryptocurrency Prices and Volatility in a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 564-590, October.
    8. Stanisław Drożdż & Robert Kluszczyński & Jarosław Kwapień & Marcin Wątorek, 2025. "Multifractality and Its Sources in the Digital Currency Market," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-23, October.
    9. Ben Nouir, Jihed & Ben Haj Hamida, Hayet, 2023. "How do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk drive Bitcoin volatility?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Ali Yavuz Polat & Hasan Tekin & Ahmet Semih Tunalı, 2023. "The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 791-809, August.
    11. Perez Riaza, Baptiste & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2025. "From depegs to jumps: The role of stablecoin instabilities in crypto market dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    12. Zhang, Zhengyong & Bouri, Elie & Klein, Tony & Jalkh, Naji, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and the returns and volatility of global defense companies: A new race to arms?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Andrea Delle Foglie & Gianni Pola, 2021. "Make the Best from Comparing Conventional and Islamic Asset Classes: A Design of an All-Seasons Combined Portfolio," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-17, October.
    14. Anupam Dutta & Elie Bouri, 2022. "Outliers and Time-Varying Jumps in the Cryptocurrency Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-7, March.
    15. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "“Digital Gold” and geopolitics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    17. Cornelia Pop & Ingrid-Emanuela Colonescu, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies’ Puzzle," JOURNAL STUDIA UNIVERSITATIS BABES-BOLYAI NEGOTIA, Babes-Bolyai University, Faculty of Business.
    18. Mercik, Aleksander & Słoński, Tomasz & Karaś, Marta, 2024. "Understanding crypto-asset exposure: An investigation of its impact on performance and stock sensitivity among listed companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    19. Long, Huaigang & Demir, Ender & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Is geopolitical risk priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    20. Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Mustafa Kevser & Fatih Ayhan, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of global factors on return of cryptocurrencies by novel nonlinear quantile approaches," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1515-1535, June.
    21. Chen, Yan & Zhang, Lei & Bouri, Elie, 2024. "Co-Bubble transmission across clean and dirty Cryptocurrencies: Network and portfolio analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    22. Chi Keung Lau & Alaa M. Soliman & Dongna Zhang, 2024. "Energy Price Inflation, Geopolitical Risk, and Bitcoin Dependence Structure: Evidence from BRICS," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(12), pages 2631-2645, September.
    23. Manel Mahjoubi & Jamel Eddine Henchiri, 2024. "The effect of policy uncertainty on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 429-441, May.
    24. Jana, Rabin K., 2024. "Are metaverse coins more prone to geopolitical risk than traditional crypto assets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 436-447.
    25. Chibane, Messaoud & Janson, Nathalie, 2025. "Is Bitcoin the best safe haven against geopolitical risk ?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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