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Spillover Effects of Homicides across Mexican Municipalities: A Spatial Regime Model Approach


  • Flores, Miguel
  • Rodriguez-Oreggia, Eduardo


This paper investigates spatial diffusion patterns of high levels of violence across Mexican municipalities to nearby locations while also exploring the possible effect of increasing law enforcement resources in some regions of the country. Our approach consists of providing a framework based on spatial regime models to address spatial heterogeneity that indicates instability in the structural determinants of homicides. In this context, a distinction is made in relation to the regimes that are analyzed between those municipalities that were exposed to joint operations (‘operativos conjuntos’) and those that were not exposed to the operations. Spatial econometric models were estimated for each regime in light of investigating possible spillover effects arising from the covariates. The results point to differences in regard to the significance, magnitude, and sign of the effects related to some variables according to each spatial regime’s specification. While the direct effects show that socioeconomic variables tend to play an important role in explaining the variation of homicides in the non-joint operation regime, the historical level of homicides and closeness to the U.S. border operate in a more significant way for those municipalities in the joint operation regime. In regard to the indirect effects estimates, a positive and significant spillover effect upon homicide rates is attributed to our law enforcement variable as well as to the proxy variable of informality. These spillover effects are found to be greater in magnitude especially in those municipalities exposed to joint operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Flores, Miguel & Rodriguez-Oreggia, Eduardo, 2014. "Spillover Effects of Homicides across Mexican Municipalities: A Spatial Regime Model Approach," MPRA Paper 56507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56507

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
    2. Harry H. Kelejian & Dennis P. Robinson, 1993. "A Suggested Method Of Estimation For Spatial Interdependent Models With Autocorrelated Errors, And An Application To A County Expenditure Model," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 297-312, July.
    3. Eduardo Rodrigues-Oreggia & Miguel Flores, 2012. "Structural Factors and the “War on Drugs” Effects on the Upsurge in Homicides in Mexico," CID Working Papers 229, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    4. Rafael Di Tella & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2004. "Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 115-133, March.
    5. J. Elhorst, 2010. "Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-28.
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    Cited by:

    1. Donald J. Lacombe & Miguel Flores, 2017. "A hierarchical SLX model application to violent crime in Mexico," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-134, January.
    2. Germá-Bel & Maximilian Holst, 2016. "“A two-Sided coin: Disentangling the economic effects of the 'War on drugs' in Mexico”," IREA Working Papers 201611, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    3. Dandan Li & Yehua Dennis Wei & Changhong Miao & Yangyi Wu & Weiye Xiao, 2019. "Innovation, Network Capabilities, and Sustainable Development of Regional Economies in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(17), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Cecilia Alonso, 2018. "Transferencias Monetarias y Crimen. Evidencia para la última década en Montevideo," Documentos de Investigacion Estudiantil (students working papers) 18-02, Instituto de Economia - IECON.

    More about this item


    ESDA; spillover effects; homicides; spatial regime model;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

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