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Spillover Effects of Homicides across Mexican Municipalities: A Spatial Regime Model Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Flores, Miguel
  • Rodriguez-Oreggia, Eduardo

Abstract

This paper investigates spatial diffusion patterns of high levels of violence across Mexican municipalities to nearby locations while also exploring the possible effect of increasing law enforcement resources in some regions of the country. Our approach consists of providing a framework based on spatial regime models to address spatial heterogeneity that indicates instability in the structural determinants of homicides. In this context, a distinction is made in relation to the regimes that are analyzed between those municipalities that were exposed to joint operations (‘operativos conjuntos’) and those that were not exposed to the operations. Spatial econometric models were estimated for each regime in light of investigating possible spillover effects arising from the covariates. The results point to differences in regard to the significance, magnitude, and sign of the effects related to some variables according to each spatial regime’s specification. While the direct effects show that socioeconomic variables tend to play an important role in explaining the variation of homicides in the non-joint operation regime, the historical level of homicides and closeness to the U.S. border operate in a more significant way for those municipalities in the joint operation regime. In regard to the indirect effects estimates, a positive and significant spillover effect upon homicide rates is attributed to our law enforcement variable as well as to the proxy variable of informality. These spillover effects are found to be greater in magnitude especially in those municipalities exposed to joint operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Flores, Miguel & Rodriguez-Oreggia, Eduardo, 2014. "Spillover Effects of Homicides across Mexican Municipalities: A Spatial Regime Model Approach," MPRA Paper 56507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56507
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56507/1/MPRA_paper_56507.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Pahre, 2009. "Introduction," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 418-419, November.
    2. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
    3. Nicholas Bardsley & Robin Cubitt & Graham Loomes & Peter Moffatt & Chris Starmer & Robert Sugden, 2009. "Introduction," Introductory Chapters,in: Experimental Economics: Rethinking the Rules Princeton University Press.
    4. Eduardo Rodrigues-Oreggia & Miguel Flores, 2012. "Structural Factors and the “War on Drugs” Effects on the Upsurge in Homicides in Mexico," CID Working Papers 229, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    5. Rafael Di Tella & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2004. "Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 115-133, March.
    6. repec:taf:acctbr:v:39:y:2009:i:3:p:175-176 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. J. Elhorst, 2010. "Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-28.
    8. J. Barkley Rosser, 2009. "Introduction," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Donald J. Lacombe & Miguel Flores, 2017. "A hierarchical SLX model application to violent crime in Mexico," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-134, January.
    2. Germá-Bel & Maximilian Holst, 2016. "“A two-Sided coin: Disentangling the economic effects of the 'War on drugs' in Mexico”," IREA Working Papers 201611, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2016.
    3. Cecilia Alonso, 2018. "Transferencias Monetarias y Crimen. Evidencia para la última década en Montevideo," Documentos de Investigación Estudiantil (students working papers) 18-02, Instituto de Economía - IECON.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ESDA; spillover effects; homicides; spatial regime model;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

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