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Urbanization as a way of saving our planet from overpopulation

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  • Shcherbakova, Nadezda

Abstract

This paper explores whether biological mechanisms, induced by the overpopulation of a territory, exert essential influence on cities' growth, and whether the level of economic development of a country is significant, when biological mechanisms are in operation. To answer these questions, four hypotheses, based on the theoretical statements and empirical findings of ethology and demography, are formed. The results of regression analysis of statistical data on national level, applied to test these hypothesis, show that that biological factors should be considered as one of the determinants of cities' growth, but a complex analysis of factors of urban development is needed. The biological mechanisms of population reduction play a significant role in the least and less developed countries: with per capita GDP growth the concentration of population in big cities increases. Total fertility rate varies significantly in these countries, but with population growth it gradually decreases. In more developed countries with high per capita GDP level less than 60% of people live in cities with the population of 1 million inhabitants or more, and a total fertility rate stabilizes there at a simple reproduction level of ca. 2,0 births per woman.

Suggested Citation

  • Shcherbakova, Nadezda, 2013. "Urbanization as a way of saving our planet from overpopulation," MPRA Paper 52299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52299
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52299/9/MPRA_paper_52299.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan F. Fox & Mikko Myrskylä, 2011. "Urban fertility responses to local government programs: evidence from the 1923-1932 U.S," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2011-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Goldsmith, Peter D. & Gunjal, Kisan & Ndarishikanye, Barnabe, 2004. "Rural-urban migration and agricultural productivity: the case of Senegal," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 33-45, July.
    3. Newell, Andrew T. & Gazeley, Ian, 2012. "The Declines in Infant Mortality and Fertility: Evidence from British Cities in Demographic Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 6855, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Abdel-Rahman, Hesham M. & Anas, Alex, 2004. "Theories of systems of cities," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics,in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 52, pages 2293-2339 Elsevier.
    5. Hill Kulu, 2013. "Why Do Fertility Levels Vary between Urban and Rural Areas?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 895-912, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    urbanization; overpopulation; fertility rate; birth rate; population density;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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