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The Choice of Airport, Airline, and Departure Date and Time: Estimating the Demand for Flights

  • Escobari, Diego
  • Mellado, Cristhian

This paper estimates the demand for flights in an international air travel market using a unique dataset with detailed information not only on flight choices but also on contemporaneous prices and characteristics of all the alternative non-booked flights. The estimation strategy employs a simple discrete choice random utility model that we use to analyze how choices and its response to prices depend on the departing airport, the identity of the carrier, and the departure date and time. The results show that a 10\% increase in prices in a 100-seat aircraft throughout a 100-period selling season decreases quantity demanded by 7.7 seats. We also find that the quantity demanded is more responsive to prices for Delta and American, during morning and evening flights and that the response to prices changes significantly over different departure dates.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47943/1/MPRA_paper_47943.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 47943.

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Date of creation: Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47943
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  1. Escobari, Diego & Lee, Sang-Yeob, 2012. "Demand shifting across flights and airports in a spatial competition model," MPRA Paper 38799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. James D. Dana & Jr., 1998. "Advance-Purchase Discounts and Price Discrimination in Competitive Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 395-422, April.
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  8. Volodymyr Bilotkach & Alberto A. Gaggero & Claudio A. Piga, 2011. "Airline Pricing under Different Market Conditions: Evidence from European Low-Cost Carriers," Working Paper Series 47_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
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  13. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2002. "Swapping the Nested Fixed Point Algorithm: A Class of Estimators for Discrete Markov Decision Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1519-1543, July.
  14. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529, July.
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  16. Wen, Chieh-Hua & Lai, Shan-Ching, 2010. "Latent class models of international air carrier choice," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 211-221, March.
  17. Diego Escobari, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing, Advance Sales and Aggregate Demand Learning in Airlines," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 697-724, December.
  18. Raymond Deneckere & James Peck, 2012. "Dynamic Competition With Random Demand and Costless Search: A Theory of Price Posting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1185-1247, 05.
  19. Berry, Steven T, 1992. "Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 889-917, July.
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  21. Angela Stefania Bergantino & Capozza, Claudia, 2012. "Airline Pricing Behaviour Under Limited Intermodal Competition," Working Papers 1206, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica, revised 2012.
  22. Escobari, Diego, 2009. "Systematic peak-load pricing, congestion premia and demand diverting: Empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 34857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
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  25. Kalyan Talluri & Garrett van Ryzin, 2004. "Revenue Management Under a General Discrete Choice Model of Consumer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 15-33, January.
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