Does the Iranian oil supply matter for the oil prices?
There is an increasing tension between the Iranian Government and the west on an increasingly likely European oil embargo and the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. The main question is: What will happen to the international oil prices in the case of shocks in the flow of Iranian oil to the international markets? In this study, we analyze the dynamic relationship between the Iranian oil supply and international oil prices from January 1973 - September 2011, using a modified version of the Granger causality test introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Our results show that there is no Granger causality between the Iranian oil production and international oil prices. Historical data on the Iranian oil production do not provide any useful information to explain the current and future values of international oil prices. Thus, global oil prices do not follow shocks in the Iranian oil production.
|Date of creation:||18 Jan 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- M. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Nukhet Dogan, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 149-176.
- Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008.
"Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
- Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2005. "Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2005.101, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009.
"The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy,"
Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
- Mohammad Reza FARZANEGAN & Gunther MARKWARDT, . "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy," EcoMod2008 23800037, EcoMod.
- Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2008. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 15/08, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
- Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
- Iwayemi, Akin & Fowowe, Babajide, 2011. "Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 603-612, February.
- Alguacil, Ma. Teresa & Cuadros, Ana & Orts, Vicente, 2002. "Foreign direct investment, exports and domestic performance in Mexico: a causality analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 371-376, November.
- Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2009. "World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5557-5566, December.
- Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2013.
"Oil exports and the Iranian economy,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 221-237.
- Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2010. "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy," Working Papers 534, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2010.
- Esfahani, H.S. & Mohaddes, K. & Pesaran, M.H., 2009. "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0944, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2009. "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy," IZA Discussion Papers 4537, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2009. "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 2843, CESifo Group Munich.
- Mohanty, Sunil K. & Nandha, Mohan & Turkistani, Abdullah Q. & Alaitani, Muhammed Y., 2011. "Oil price movements and stock market returns: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-55.
- Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
- Bachmeier, Lance, 2008. "Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1738-1755, December.
- Apostolos Serletis, 2012.
"Oil Price Uncertainty,"
World Scientific Books,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8407, Spring.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- John Burbidge & Alan Harrison, 1982.
"Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions,"
School of Economics Working Papers
1982-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-84, June.
- Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2008. "The impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3095-3108, November.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
- Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2011. "Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1055-1069.
- Adjemian, Stéphane & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy and the transmission of oil-supply shocks to the euro area under rational expectations," Working Paper Series 0962, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36030. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.