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Does the Iranian oil supply matter for the oil prices?

Author Info

  • Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

    ()

    (University of Marburg)

Abstract

There is an increasing tension between the Iranian Government and the west on an increasingly likely European oil embargo and the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. The main question is: What will happen to the international oil prices in the case of shocks in the flow of Iranian oil to the international markets? In this study, we analyze the dynamic relationship between the Iranian oil supply and international oil prices from January 1973 - September 2011, using a modified version of the Granger causality test introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Our results show that there is no Granger causality between the Iranian oil production and international oil prices. Historical data on the Iranian oil production do not provide any useful information to explain the current and future values of international oil prices. Thus, global oil prices do not follow shocks in the Iranian oil production.

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File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/32-2012_farzanegan.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
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Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201232.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201232
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Fax: 06421/28-4858
Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/Email:


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Keywords: Oil price; Oil production; VAR model; Granger causality; Sanction; Iran;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
  • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
  • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
  • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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  1. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
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  7. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2011. "Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1055-1069.
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  9. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
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  15. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  16. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2005. "Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2005.101, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  17. Adjemian, Stéphane & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy and the transmission of oil-supply shocks to the euro area under rational expectations," Working Paper Series 0962, European Central Bank.
  18. Alguacil, Ma. Teresa & Cuadros, Ana & Orts, Vicente, 2002. "Foreign direct investment, exports and domestic performance in Mexico: a causality analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 371-376, November.
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Cited by:

  1. Dizaji, Sajjad Faraji, 2014. "The effects of oil shocks on government expenditures and government revenues nexus (with an application to Iran's sanctions)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 299-313.

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