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Default risk and fiscal sustainability in PIIGS countries

  • Canale, Rosaria Rita

European Monetary Union experiences the division into two major blocks according to their ability to respect fiscal criteria and replace their bonds on the market. The so-called PIIGS countries are asked to hardly reduce their deficit and debt in order to prevent speculative attacks and preserve the Currency Union. The aim of the paper is to show that speculative attacks on government debt are not directly linked to default probability, but to liquidity requirements and to the EU fiscal constraints. In times of crisis the path of deficit/GDP ratio goes up and send the signal that governments are loosening their fiscal stance. As far as there are liquidity constraints, markets increase the spreads and force governments to fiscal retrenchments, hardly increasing the cost of adjustment. The result is that in the absence of a bailout shared mechanism financial markets give policy prescriptions and exert a political pressure without having fiscal sovereignty.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32215.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32215
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  1. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
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  7. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Greg Hannsgen, 2009. "Recent Rise in Federal Government and Federal Reserve Liabilities--Antidote to a Speculative Hangover," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_apr_09_2, Levy Economics Institute.
  8. Stéphanie Guichard & David Haugh & David Turner, 2009. "Quantifying the Effect of Financial Conditions in the Euro Area, Japan, United Kingdom and United States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 677, OECD Publishing.
  9. Jeanne, Olivier, 1998. "Generating real persistent effects of monetary shocks: How much nominal rigidity do we really need?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1009-1032, June.
  10. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2003. "Macroeconomic Policies of the Economic Monetary Union: Theoretical Underpinnings and Challenges," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_385, Levy Economics Institute.
  11. Kopf, Christian, 2011. "Restoring financial stability in the euro area," CEPS Papers 4292, Centre for European Policy Studies.
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