Emigration of Skilled Labor under Risk Aversion: The Case of Medical Doctors from Middle Eastern and North African Economies

This is a contribution to the new economics of skilled labor emigration that focuses on the mobility of medical doctors from sending Middle East and North African countries. Economic models under risk neutrality and aversion are used. The findings show that the relative expected benefits and the emigration rate have major effects on the net relative human medical capital that remains in the source country. The effects of relative wages in the destination and sending countries besides the yield of education are likely to change the emigration patterns. Comparisons of theoretical and observed relative human capital per country averages are conducted and ensured the statistical validity of the model. The empirical results based on the available data by Docquier and Marfouk (2006 and 2008) and Bhargava, Docquier and Moullan (2010) allowed further use of the model to understand the current trends in the emigration of medical doctors. These trends confirm the magnitude of relative wages besides the level of education and the attitude toward risk as determinants of the emigration of skilled labor. The countries included in the study are all exhibiting brain gain under 1991-2004 emigration data but two distinct groups of countries are identified. Each country is encouraged to anticipate the likely effects of this emigration on the economy with the increase of health demand, the domestic wages and the increase in education capacity for medical doctors.