Two speed Europe and business cycle synchronization in the European Union: The effect of the common currency
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of the policies and procedures towards economic convergence between the countries that participated in the European Exchange Mechanism I and which are now members states of the Eurozone. The question is whether the introduction of the common currency has led to more synchronisation of the business cycles of member states or it has acted as the monetary ground for the creation of a multi-speed Europe that includes economies that bear little resemblance in terms of their basic economic features and figures and especially with respect to the fluctuations in their Gross Domestic Product. The empirical analysis is done through the use of linear regressions, the estimation of the correlation coefficient, and also a proposed sign concordance index (SCI). The results provide evidence that the synchronisation of the cycles seem to become weaker since the adoption of the new currency. Especially for G6, the group of the smaller regional economies, the results are consistent throughout all three methodologies used and for both groups of countries’ cycles used as a comparison base, the broad EU15 and the narrow G3.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993.
"Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
- Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Robert DeFina, 1998. "Monetary policy and the U.S. and regions: some implications for European Monetary Union," Working Papers 98-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Artis, M. & Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 1999.
"The European Business Cycle,"
Economics Working Papers
eco99/24, European University Institute.
- Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Artis, Michael J & Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Toro, Juan, 1999. "The European Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2242, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997.
"Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Ivailo Izvorski, . "MATLAB code for the Hodrick-Prescott filter," QM&RBC Codes 1, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Morten Ravn, . "Alternate GAUSS program for the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," QM&RBC Codes 102, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Ken Matheny & Simon van Norden & Robert Vigfusson, 1989. "GAUSS code for the Hodrick-Prescott filter," QM&RBC Codes 2, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles, revised Apr 1995.
- Kurt Annen, 2004. "Matlab functions for HP-filter," QM&RBC Codes 166, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Morten Ravn, . "GAUSS program for Hodrick-Prescott filter," QM&RBC Codes 101, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Christian Zimmermann, 2005. "HP-Filter (web interface)," QM&RBC Codes 97, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "FORTRAN code for the Hodrick-Prescott filter," QM&RBC Codes 3, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Kurt Annen, 2004. "HP-filter for Java," QM&RBC Codes 168, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Kurt Annen, 2006. "HP-Filter DLL executable," QM&RBC Codes 167, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Christian Zimmermann, 2005. "HP-Filter code (Perl)," QM&RBC Codes 98, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Kurt Annen, 2006. "HP-Filter Excel Add-In," QM&RBC Codes 165, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Rose, Andrew, 1999.
"One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade,"
678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-79, April.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, 09.
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
- Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
- Leon, Costas, 2006. "The European and the Greek Business Cycles: Are they synchronized?," MPRA Paper 1312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13909. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.