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Adaptive vs. Eductive Learning: Theory and Evidence

  • John Duffy
  • Te Bao

Adaptive learning and eductive learning are two widely used ways of modeling learning behavior in macroeconomics. Both approaches yield restrictions on model parameters under which agents are able to learn a rational expectation equilibrium (REE) but these restrictions do not always overlap with one another. In this paper we report on an experiment where we exploit such differences in stability conditions under adaptive and eductive learning to investigate which learning approach provides a better description of the learning behavior of human subjects. Our results suggest that adaptive learning is a better predictor of whether a system converges to REE, while the path by which the system converges appears to be a mixture of both adaptive and eductive learning model predictions.

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File URL: http://www.ewi-ssl.pitt.edu/econ/files/faculty/wp/131223_wp_DuffyJohn_AdaptiveEductive131222.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 518.

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Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision: Dec 2013
Handle: RePEc:pit:wpaper:518
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  1. John Beshears & James J. Choi & Andreas Fuster & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian, 2013. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 570-74, May.
  2. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2007. "Limited Rationality And Strategic Interaction: The Impact Of The Strategic Environment On Nominal Inertia," CAMA Working Papers 2007-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Nagel, Rosemarie, 1995. "Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1313-26, December.
  4. Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra, 2012. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-016/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Guesnerie, R., 1999. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," DELTA Working Papers 1999-06, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  6. Bao, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2010. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  7. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  8. Theo Offerman & Jan Potters & Joep Sonnemans, 2002. "Imitation and Belief Learning in an Oligopoly Experiment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 973-997.
  9. Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2010. "Positive expectations feedback experiments and number guessing games as models of financial markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 964-984, December.
  10. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2012. "Effect of Uncertainty about Others' Rationality in Experimental Asset Markets: An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00793613, HAL.
  11. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 05-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  12. Sutan, Angela & Willinger, Marc, 2009. "Guessing with negative feedback: An experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1123-1133, May.
  13. Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra, 2012. "Individual Expectations, Limited Rationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-016/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  14. Sonnemans, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999. "The Instability of a Heterogeneous Cobweb economy: a Strategy Experiment on Expectation Formation," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  15. Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  16. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuchiro Ishikawa, 2012. "Effect of uncertainty about others’ rationality in experimental asset markets," AMSE Working Papers 1234, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
  17. Ariel Rubinstein, 2007. "Instinctive and Cognitive Reasoning: Response Times Study," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000001011, UCLA Department of Economics.
  18. Bao, Te & Duffy, John & Hommes, Cars, 2013. "Learning, forecasting and optimizing: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 186-204.
  19. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-91663 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2013. "It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in an Experimental Asset Market," AMSE Working Papers 1340, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 08 Aug 2013.
  21. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2013. "It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in an Experimental Asset Market," Working Papers halshs-00854513, HAL.
  22. John Duffy, 2008. "Macroeconomics: A Survey of Laboratory Research," Working Papers 334, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
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