Carbon leakage under incomplete environmental regulation: An industry-level approach
Carbon leakage is a major concern for policymakers involved with environmental initiatives such as the European Union's emissions trading scheme and similar cap-and-trade proposals in the United States, Australia, and elsewhere.� This paper provides a framework for understanding the drives underlying carbon leakage at the level of an individual sector in which only a subset of firms is covered by such regulation.� It provides simple formulae to estimate leakage rates using information on industry characteristics that is typically available to the analyst.� Illustrative estimates for the steel industry in the EU ETS suggest carbon leakage of 25-30% or (much) higher - unless environmental-efficiency improvements by regulated firms are substantial.
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