M3 Strategic Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Modes, Models, & Momentum

The M3 theory contributes to new knowledge through original research and advanced scholarship by introducing a descriptive framework for strategic decision-making in uncertain and changing environments. Aided by the introduction of the Social Realism epistemology into management literature, it differentiates its ability to present complex strategic positions as essentialist (via modes), relative (via models), and dynamic (via momentum) to plot the dynamic trajectory of innovation emergence, change, adaptation, and transformation over time. At a fundamental level, the M3 theory identifies a consistent set of rules that decision-makers intentionally or unintentionally engage with or ignore to take strategic positions based on four integrated yet polarized pairs of modes: systematic (+S) vs. responsive (+R) strategies, and conforming (+C) vs. differentiating (+D) strategies. Systematic strategies (+S) are the mode dedicated to increasingly sophisticated rational cognitive processes; these processes plan, purposefully compartmentalize, and regulate emotions. Responsive strategies (+R), conversely, are the mode dedicated to increasingly sensitized intuitive processes; these processes are reflective, associative, action-oriented, and emotionally expressive. The second pair of modes intersect with the two aforementioned modes, employing conforming strategies (+C), which move towards convergence by adapting to or conveying socially perceived superior norms; these processes involve the exploitation of existing power. In contrast, differentiating strategies (+D) represents the mode dedicated to diverging from traditional norms with empowerment for exploration. These processes include novelty-seeking, sabotage, risk-taking, experimentation, play, flexibility, discovery, and higher levels of innovation. Finally, the dynamic (momentum) component informs how strategic modes and models under uncertainty evolve and refine their sophistication in response to the pressure and demands of the four drives (+L). The M3 theory is informed by three distinct but interrelated and simultaneous empirical streams of data: (i) field data coding decision framework patterns from five ethnographic case studies of collaborations leading to emergent innovation in the fields of corporate contracting (C1), higher education scaling (C2), economic development around economic disparity (C3), health and safety software startup (C4), and health and well-being (C5) with research participant feedback loops; (ii) the mapping of 200+ peer-reviewed decision-making models; and (iii) meta prototyping the principles in the construction of the emergent M3 theory itself. [Originally submitted as a doctoral thesis at Newcastle University (2017); reissued in 2025 for open access under CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0.]