Inter-system linkage formation in multi-system transitions: Incumbents, asymmetries and learning cycles

This paper analyses how incumbent actors with established positions in various sectors and systems engage in the formation of inter-system linkages to combine different systems in new ways. We refer to such recombination of systems as a multi-system transition. Grounded in evolutionary economics, the paper introduces a recursive model with interrelated learning cycles that account for both transitions in individual systems and interactions to establish new linkages between systems. A case analysis of the ongoing electrification of goods transportation in Sweden – a multi-system transition that combines electricity and goods transportation in new ways – illustrates how interactions across systems often are asymmetric, with some systems undergoing more substantial changes than others. This asymmetry helps explain why incumbent actors from different systems and sectors favor different kinds of inter-system linkages. Asymmetries across systems reveal a more complex sequentiality of a multi-system transition compared to a single-system transition, with different systems situated in different transition phases. This necessitates mixes of supporting policies tailored to stimulate a variety of transition phases. By introducing a model that highlights actor-system coevolution, the paper provides insights into the possibilities to engage incumbent actors from different systems and sectors to drive multi-system transitions.