M3 Strategic Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Modes, Models, and Momentum

The M3 theory contributes to new knowledge through original research and advanced scholarship by introducing a descriptive framework for strategic decision-making in uncertain and changing environments. Aided by the introduction of a Social Realism epistemology into management literature, it differentiates in its ability to present complex strategic positions as essentialist (via modes), relative (via models), and dynamic (via momentum) to plot the dynamic trajectory of innovation emergence, change, adaptation, and transformation over time. At a fundamental level, the M3 theory identifies a consistent set of rules that decision-makers intentionally or unintentionally engage with or ignore to take strategic positions based on four integrated yet polarized pairs of modes: systematic (+S) vs. responsive (+R) strategies, and conforming (+C), vs. differentiating (+D) strategies. Systematic strategies (+S) are the mode dedicated to increasingly sophisticated rational cognitive processes; these processes plan, purposefully compartmentalize, and regulate emotions. Responsive strategies (+R), conversely, are the mode dedicated to increasingly sensitized intuitive processes; these processes are reflective, associative, action-oriented, and emotionally expressive. The second pair of modes intersects with the two aforementioned modes with conforming strategies (+C) moving towards convergence by adapting or conveying socially perceived superior norms; these processes include the exploitation of existing power. In contrast, differentiating strategies (+D) represents the mode dedicated to diverging from traditional norms with empowerment for exploration. These processes include novelty-seeking, sabotage, risk-taking, experimentation, play, flexibility, discovery, and higher levels of innovation. Finally, the dynamic (momentum) component informs how strategic modes and models under uncertainty improve and adjust in sophistication under the pressure and demands of the four drives (+L). The M3 theory is informed by three distinct but interrelated and simultaneous empirical streams of data: (i) field data from five ethnographic case studies, with research participant feedback loops; (ii) the mapping of 200+ peer-reviewed decision-making models; and (iii) prototyping the principles in the construction of the emergent M3 theory. In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Management Studies for Newcastle University, PhD Doctoral requirements, 2017.