Strategic behaviour and risk taking in football
This article develops a dynamic game-theoretic model of optimizing strategic behaviour by football teams. Teams choose continuously between defensive and attacking formations and between a non-violent and a violent playing style. Starting from the end of the match and working backwards, the teams’ optimal strategies conditional on the current state of the match are determined by solving a series of two-person non-cooperative subgames. Numerical simulations are used to explore the sensitivity of strategic behaviour to variations in the structural parameters. The model is tested empirically, using English football league data. Teams that are trailing are willing to bear an increased risk of a player dismissal in order to increase the probability of scoring. Teams that are leading or level in scores play cautiously. The scoring rates of teams that are trailing are higher than those of teams that are ahead or level. Stochastic simulations are used to obtain probabilities for match results, conditional upon the state of the match at any stage. The article’s main theoretical and empirical results constitute novel, non-experimental evidence that the strategic behaviour of football teams can be rationalized in accordance with game-theoretic principles of optimizing strategic behaviour by agents when payoffs are uncertain and interdependent.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, 2003.
"Professionals Play Minimax,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 395-415.
- David Audretsch & Roy Thurik, 2004. "A Model of the Entrepreneurial Economy," Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 2004-12, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Group.
- Peter Dawson & Stephen Dobson & John Goddard & John Wilson, 2007. "Are football referees really biased and inconsistent?: evidence on the incidence of disciplinary sanction in the English Premier League," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(1), pages 231-250.
- M Sensier & D R Osborn & N Öcal, 2002.
"Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
10, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Sensier, Marianne & Osborn, Denise R & Ocal, Nadir, 2002. " Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 315-39, September.
- Charles Brown & James L. Medoff, 1989.
"The Employer Size-Wage Effect,"
NBER Working Papers
2870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996.
"Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
- Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
- P.-A. Chiappori, 2002. "Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria When Players Are Heterogeneous: The Case of Penalty Kicks in Soccer," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1138-1151, September.
- Banerjee, Anurag N. & Swinnen, Johan & Weersink, Alfons, 2004.
"Skating on thin ice: rule changes and team strategies in the NHL,"
Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics
0401, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Anurag N. Banerjee & Johan F. M. Swinnen & Alfons Weersink, 2007. "Skating on thin ice: rule changes and team strategies in the NHL," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 493-514, May.
- Anurag N. Banerjee & Johan F.M. Swinnen & Alfons Weersink, 2006. "Skating on Thin Ice: Rule Changes and Team Strategies in the NHL," LICOS Discussion Papers 17506, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
- John Sutton, 1997. "Gibrat's Legacy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 40-59, March.
- Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-36, May.
- Faria, João Ricardo & Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2009. "Unemployment and entrepreneurship: A cyclical relation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 318-320, December.
- Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
- Highfield, Richard & Smiley, Robert, 1987. "New business starts and economic activity : An empirical investigation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 51-66, March.
- David B. Audretsch & A. Roy Thurik, 2000. "Capitalism and democracy in the 21st Century: from the managed to the entrepreneurial economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 17-34.
- José Cancelo & Estefanía Mourelle, 2005. "Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in European Imports," International Advances in Economic Research, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 135-147, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbs:wpaper:2008/7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simeon Coleman)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Simeon Coleman to update the entry or send us the correct email address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.