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Tariff Phase-Outs: Theory and Evidence from GATT and NAFTA

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  • Carsten Kowalczyk
  • Donald Davis

Abstract

This paper considers tariff phase-outs in multilateral and preferential agreements. The paper finds that early GATT rounds primarily were over bindings of existing rates and that it was not until the 1962-67 Kennedy Round's 50% reduction in manufactured goods tariffs that time paths of tariff reductions became a substantive part of GATT agreements. Existing empirical work has demonstrated that U.S. industries with high initial tariffs tended to receive long periods for tariff adjustment or tended to be exempted from agreed reductions in both the Kennedy and Tokyo Rounds. This paper demonstrates that high U.S. tariffs and little intra-industry trade are associated with long NAFTA phase-out periods for U.S. imports from Mexico. Mexico's phase-outs are correlated, on the other hand, with those of the United States but not generally with Mexico's tariffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Carsten Kowalczyk & Donald Davis, 1996. "Tariff Phase-Outs: Theory and Evidence from GATT and NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 5421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5421
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    Cited by:

    1. Carsten Kowalczyk & Raymond Riezman, 2009. "Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series 2660, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Emilio Gutierrez & Kensuke Teshima, 2011. "Import Competition and Environmental Performance: Evidence from Mexican Plant-level and Satellite Imagery Data," Working Papers 1101, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    3. Arvind Panagariya, 1999. "The Regionalism Debate: An Overview," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 477-512, June.
    4. Antoni Estevadeordal & Caroline Freund & Emanuel Ornelas, 2008. "Does Regionalism Affect Trade Liberalization Toward Nonmembers?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1531-1575.
    5. Andreas Waldkirch, 2011. "Comparative advantage FDI? A host country perspective," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 485-505, September.
    6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Borders, Trade and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Iacovone, Leonardo, 2012. "The better you are the stronger it makes you: Evidence on the asymmetric impact of liberalization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 474-485.
    8. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Nicholas Li & Ralph Ossa & Mu-Jeung Yang, 2016. "Accounting for the New Gains from Trade Liberalization," Working Papers 16-14, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "Job creation, job destruction, and international competition: job flows and trade: the case of NAFTA," Working Papers 02-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Antoni Estevadeordal, 1999. "Negotiating Preferential Market Access: The Case of NAFTA," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2567, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Hideo Konishi & Carsten Kowalczyk & Tomas Sjostrom, 2003. "Free Trade, Customs Unions, and Transfers," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 568, Boston College Department of Economics.
    12. Freund, Caroline, 2003. "Reciprocity in free trade agreements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3061, The World Bank.
    13. Cherniwchan, Jevan, 2017. "Trade liberalization and the environment: Evidence from NAFTA and U.S. manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 130-149.
    14. Ayhan Kose & Christopher M Towe & Guy M Meredith, 2004. "How Has Nafta Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 04/59, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Alejandro Castañeda, 2003. "Mexican manufacturing markups: procyclical behavior and the impact of trade liberalization," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 209-230, July-Dece.
    16. Robert C. Feenstra, 1997. "U.S. Exports, 1972-1994: With State Exports and Other U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 5990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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