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On the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Reserves During the 2021-22 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Rashad Ahmed
  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Jamel Saadaoui
  • Gazi Salah Uddin

Abstract

This paper examines whether the size of foreign exchange (FX) reserves can explain cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation observed over the 2021-22 Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening that led to a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. Across a broad sample of countries, we document that an additional 10 percentage points of FX reserves/GDP held ex-ante were associated with 1.5 to 2 percent less exchange rate depreciation and this buffer effect was larger among less financially developed economies. Effects were more pronounced for large-reserve countries that sold reserves to intervene than for large-reserve countries that did not intervene, lending support to the presence of both balance sheet and intervention channels. Higher ex-ante policy rates were also associated with less depreciation especially among financially open economies. An analysis of daily currency movements following the June 2021 FOMC meeting corroborates these results. These findings suggest that FX reserves may promote monetary policy independence in the presence of global spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Rashad Ahmed & Joshua Aizenman & Jamel Saadaoui & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2023. "On the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Reserves During the 2021-22 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle," NBER Working Papers 30935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30935
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in an Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 812-815, November.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    3. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Commodity currencies and causality: Some high-frequency evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Luis Cabezas & José Gregorio, 2019. "Accumulation of reserves in emerging and developing countries: mercantilism versus insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 819-857, November.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ahmed, Rashad, 2019. "Commodity Currencies and Causality: Some High-Frequency Evidence," MPRA Paper 98319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jan 2020.
    8. Ahmed, Shaghil & Coulibaly, Brahima & Zlate, Andrei, 2017. "International financial spillovers to emerging market economies: How important are economic fundamentals?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 133-152.
    9. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    10. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    11. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2022. "Do central banks rebalance their currency shares?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun & Hamza Mighri & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "International reserves, currency depreciation and public debt: new evidence of buffer effects in Africa," Working Papers of BETA 2023-42, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy

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