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On the effectiveness of foreign exchange reserves during the 2021-22 U.S. monetary tightening cycle

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  • Ahmed, Rashad
  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Saadaoui, Jamel
  • Uddin, Gazi Salah

Abstract

This paper examines whether the size of foreign exchange (FX) reserves explains cross-country differences in foreign currency depreciation realized over the 2021-22 Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening that led to a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. Across a broad sample of countries, we document that an additional 10 percentage points of FX reserves/GDP held ex-ante were associated with 1.5 to 2 percent less exchange rate depreciation against the US dollar and this buffer effect was larger among less financially developed economies. Effects were more pronounced for large-reserve countries that sold reserves to intervene than for large-reserve countries that did not intervene, supporting the presence of both balance sheet and intervention channels. Higher ex-ante policy rates were also associated with less depreciation especially among financially open economies. An analysis of daily currency movements following the June 2021 FOMC meeting corroborates the main results. These findings suggest that FX reserves may promote monetary policy independence in the presence of global spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Rashad & Aizenman, Joshua & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2023. "On the effectiveness of foreign exchange reserves during the 2021-22 U.S. monetary tightening cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:233:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523003920
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111367
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    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Ho, Sy-Hoa & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mighri, Hamza & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "International reserves, currency depreciation and public debt: New evidence of buffer effects in Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Wang, Mengjiao & Liu, Jianxu & Yang, Bing, 2024. "Does the strength of the US dollar affect the interdependence among currency exchange rates of RCEP and CPTPP countries?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International reserves; Trilemma; Global financial cycle; Currency risk; Spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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