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Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability

Author

Listed:
  • Amrita Ahuja
  • Susan Athey
  • Arthur Baker
  • Eric Budish
  • Juan Camilo Castillo
  • Rachel Glennerster
  • Scott Duke Kominers
  • Michael Kremer
  • Jean Nahrae Lee
  • Canice Prendergast
  • Christopher M. Snyder
  • Alex Tabarrok
  • Brandon Joel Tan
  • Witold Więcek

Abstract

Vaccinating the world’s population quickly in a pandemic has enormous health and economic benefits. We analyze the problem faced by governments in determining the scale and structure of procurement for vaccines. We analyze alternative approaches to procurement. We find that if the goal is to accelerate the vaccine delivery timetable, buyers should directly fund manufacturing capacity and shoulder most of the risk of failure, while maintaining some direct incentives for speed. We analyzed the optimal portfolio of vaccine investments for countries with different characteristics as well as the implications for international cooperation. Our analysis, considered in light of the experience of 2020, suggests lessons for future pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Amrita Ahuja & Susan Athey & Arthur Baker & Eric Budish & Juan Camilo Castillo & Rachel Glennerster & Scott Duke Kominers & Michael Kremer & Jean Nahrae Lee & Canice Prendergast & Christopher M. Snyde, 2021. "Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability," NBER Working Papers 28492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28492
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Kremer & Jonathan Levin & Christopher M. Snyder, 2020. "Advance Market Commitments: Insights from Theory and Experience," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 269-273, May.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33044.
    3. Demombynes,Gabriel, 2020. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9313, The World Bank.
    4. Lars Bo Jeppesen & Karim R. Lakhani, 2010. "Marginality and Problem-Solving Effectiveness in Broadcast Search," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(5), pages 1016-1033, October.
    5. Michael Kremer, 2021. "Vaccines and the Pandemic," NBER Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Snyder, Christopher M. & Hoyt, Kendall & Gouglas, Dimitrios, 2023. "An optimal mechanism to fund the development of vaccines against emerging epidemics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Agarwal, Ruchir & Gaule, Patrick, 2022. "What drives innovation? Lessons from COVID-19 R&D," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Nikhil Agarwal & Andrew Komo & Chetan A. Patel & Parag A. Pathak & M. Utku Ünver, 2021. "The Trade-off Between Prioritization and Vaccination Speed Depends on Mitigation Measures," NBER Working Papers 28519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ockenfels Axel, 2021. "Marktdesign für eine resiliente Impfstoff-produktion," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 259-269, September.
    5. Veronika Grimm & Franziska K. Lembcke & Milena Schwarz, 2021. "Impffortschritt in Deutschland und der Welt: Chancen und Risiken [Opportunities and Risks of Vaccination Progress]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(4), pages 266-275, April.
    6. Simon J. Evenett & Bernard Hoekman & Nadia Rocha and Michele Ruta, 2021. "The Covid-19 Vaccine Production Club: Will Value Chains Temper Nationalism?," RSCAS Working Papers 2021/36, European University Institute.
    7. Scott Duke Kominers & Alex Tabarrok, 2022. "Vaccines and the Covid-19 pandemic: lessons from failure and success," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 719-741.
    8. Kyle, Margaret K., 2022. "Incentives for pharmaceutical innovation: What’s working, what’s lacking," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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