IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecr/v53y2020i3p415-428.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Policy to Aid Recovery after Social Distancing for COVID‐19

Author

Listed:
  • Ian M. McDonald

Abstract

Using the Keynesian model set out in McDonald (2020), in which downward wage rigidity is supported by worker loss aversion with respect to wages, this article shows that a period of social distancing (SD) can leave a post‐SD economy with both stimulatory and depressive effects. A loss of productive capacity is stimulating. Costs of restarting firms, lower labour productivity when restarted and a desire to restore wealth from debt incurred during the period of SD are depressive. If, as seems highly probable, the net effect on economic activity is negative then a fiscal expansion can restore activity. To avoid an increased government budget deficit, this expansion would probably require an increased tax rate. Reductions in real wages may also be necessary. A desire to balance the government budget combined with no increase in the tax rate would be unfortunate, because it would cause a further contraction in activity from its post‐SD level.

Suggested Citation

  • Ian M. McDonald, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy to Aid Recovery after Social Distancing for COVID‐19," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(3), pages 415-428, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:53:y:2020:i:3:p:415-428
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12387
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8462.12387?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 97-120, Winter.
    2. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33044, December.
    3. Ian M. McDonald, 2017. "‘We Will End Up Being a Third Rate Economy … A Banana Republic’: How Behavioural Economics Can Improve Macroeconomic Outcomes," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(2), pages 137-151, June.
    4. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William F. Mitchell, 2020. "Debt and Deficits—A Modern Monetary Theory Perspective," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(4), pages 566-576, December.
    2. Nana Liu & Zeshui Xu & Marinko Skare, 2021. "The research on COVID-19 and economy from 2019 to 2020: analysis from the perspective of bibliometrics," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 217-268, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ofori, Isaac K. & Armah, Mark K. & Asmah, Emmanuel E., 2021. "Towards the Reversal of Poverty and Income Inequality Setbacks Due to COVID-19: The Role of Globalisation and Resource Allocation," MPRA Paper 108619, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
    3. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    4. Gabriel Căriman & Dumitru-Mihai Luca, 2021. "Economic Aspects of COVID-19 Medical Crisis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 24(79), pages 42-52, March.
    5. Desogus, Marco & Casu, Elisa, 2022. "Chaos, granularity, and instability in economic systems of countries with emerging market economies: relationships between GDP growth rate and increasing internal inequality," MPRA Paper 115744, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2022.
    6. Riccardo Settimo & Raffaele De Marchi, 2021. "Will multilateral development banks weather the Covid-19 crisis?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 598, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Orietta Nicolis & Jean Paul Maidana & Fabian Contreras & Danilo Leal, 2024. "Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability: A Clustering Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, February.
    8. World Bank, 2020. "South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative," World Bank Publications - Reports 34118, The World Bank Group.
    9. Paul Hanly & Michelle Ahern & Linda Sharp & Diana Ursul & Gerard Loughnane, 2022. "The cost of lost productivity due to premature mortality associated with COVID-19: a Pan-European study," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(2), pages 249-259, March.
    10. González, Marta Ramos & Ureña, Antonio Partal & Fernández-Aguado, Pilar Gómez, 2023. "Forecasting for regulatory credit loss derived from the COVID-19 pandemic: A machine learning approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Quibria, M.G., 2020. "Poverty and Policy in the Developing World: Before and After the Pandemic," MPRA Paper 104240, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2020.
    12. Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Daniel Ștefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeș, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-35, September.
    13. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria, 2021. "How can green differentiated capital requirements affect climate risks? A dynamic macrofinancial analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. World Bank, 2020. "Taking Stock, July 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 34268, The World Bank Group.
    15. Marinov, Eduard, 2020. "Новият Шок Covid 19 – Въздействие Върху Международната Търговия На Глобално И Национално Ниво [The new shock COVID 19 - impact on international trade on a global and national level]," MPRA Paper 110921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Osman Taylan & Abdulaziz S. Alkabaa & Mustafa Tahsin Yılmaz, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on G20 countries: analysis of economic recession using data mining approaches," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, December.
    17. Anson T. Y. Ho & Lealand Morin & Harry J. Paarsch & Kim P. Huynh, 2022. "Consumer credit usage in Canada during the coronavirus pandemic," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 88-114, February.
    18. Liu, Li-Jing & Yao, Yun-Fei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Qian, Xiang-Yan & Xu, Chun-Lei & Wei, Si-Yi & Creutzig, Felix & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Combining economic recovery with climate change mitigation: A global evaluation of financial instruments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-453.
    19. Abdoul’ Ganiou Mijiyawa & Djoulassi K. Oloufade, 2023. "Effect of Remittance Inflows on External Debt in Developing Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 437-470, April.
    20. Demombynes,Gabriel, 2020. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9313, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:53:y:2020:i:3:p:415-428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mimelau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.