IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28519.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Trade-off Between Prioritization and Vaccination Speed Depends on Mitigation Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Nikhil Agarwal
  • Andrew Komo
  • Chetan A. Patel
  • Parag A. Pathak
  • M. Utku Ünver

Abstract

Calls for eliminating prioritization for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are growing amid concerns that prioritization reduces vaccination speed. We use an SEIR model to study the effects of vaccination distribution on public health, comparing prioritization policy and speed under mitigation measures that are either eased during the vaccine rollout or sustained through the end of the pandemic period. NASEM's recommended prioritization results in fewer deaths than no prioritization, but does not minimize total deaths. If mitigation measures are eased, abandoning NASEM will result in about 134,000 more deaths at 30 million vaccinations per month. Vaccination speed must be at least 53% higher under no prioritization to avoid increasing deaths. With sustained mitigation, discarding NASEM prioritization will result in 42,000 more deaths, requiring only a 26% increase in speed to hold deaths constant. Therefore, abandoning NASEM's prioritization to increase vaccination speed without substantially increasing deaths may require sustained mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikhil Agarwal & Andrew Komo & Chetan A. Patel & Parag A. Pathak & M. Utku Ünver, 2021. "The Trade-off Between Prioritization and Vaccination Speed Depends on Mitigation Measures," NBER Working Papers 28519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28519
    Note: EH
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28519.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    2. Amrita Ahuja & Susan Athey & Arthur Baker & Eric Budish & Juan Camilo Castillo & Rachel Glennerster & Scott Duke Kominers & Michael Kremer & Jean Lee & Canice Prendergast & Christopher M. Snyder & Ale, 2021. "Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 331-335, May.
    3. Eric Budish, 2020. "Maximize Utility subject to R≤1: A Simple Price-Theory Approach to Covid-19 Lockdown and Reopening Policy," NBER Working Papers 28093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Colin J. Worby & Hsiao-Han Chang, 2020. "Face mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. repec:rza:wpaper:826 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anup Malani & Satej Soman & Sabareesh Ramachandran & Alice Chen & Darius N. Lakdawalla, 2022. "Vaccine Allocation Priorities Using Disease Surveillance and Economic Data," NBER Working Papers 29682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. L'aszl'o Czaller & GergH{o} T'oth & Bal'azs Lengyel, 2021. "Vaccine allocation to blue-collar workers," Papers 2104.04639, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Christopher Avery, 2021. "A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination," NBER Working Papers 29463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Scott Duke Kominers & Alex Tabarrok, 2022. "Vaccines and the Covid-19 pandemic: lessons from failure and success," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 719-741.
    4. Aspri, Andrea & Beretta, Elena & Gandolfi, Alberto & Wasmer, Etienne, 2021. "Mortality containment vs. Economics Opening: Optimal policies in a SEIARD model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    6. Wei-Cheng Chen & Lin Chen & Yi-Cheng Kao, 2024. "Efficient mask allocation during a pandemic," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(2), pages 275-311, June.
    7. Kumar, Anand & Priya, Bhawna & Srivastava, Samir K., 2021. "Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 76-94.
    8. Nattavudh Powdthavee & Yohanes E Riyanto & Erwin C L Wong & Jonathan X W Yeo & Qi Yu Chan, 2021. "When face masks signal social identity: Explaining the deep face-mask divide during the COVID-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, June.
    9. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Cynthia Fan Yang, 2022. "Matching theory and evidence on Covid‐19 using a stochastic network SIR model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1204-1229, September.
    11. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    12. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of mobility on COVID-19 in the US: targeted lockdowns based on income and poverty," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(1), pages 18-36, April.
    13. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Luca Gori & Piero Manfredi & Simone Marsiglio & Mauro Sodini, 2023. "A parsimonious model of optimal social distancing and vaccination during an outbreak," Discussion Papers 2023/292, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    15. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    16. Kim, Dongwoo & Lee, Young Jun, 2022. "Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: Evidence across advanced countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Torsten Heinrich, 2021. "Epidemics in modern economies," Chemnitz Economic Papers 045, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised May 2021.
    18. Chen, Xiaowei & Chong, Wing Fung & Feng, Runhuan & Zhang, Linfeng, 2021. "Pandemic risk management: Resources contingency planning and allocation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 359-383.
    19. Mart n Gonzales-Eiras, Dirk Niepelt, 2023. "Optimal Epidemic Control," Diskussionsschriften dp2311, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    20. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Welfare costs of COVID‐19: Evidence from US counties," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 826-848, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.