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Face mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

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  • Colin J. Worby

    (Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard)

  • Hsiao-Han Chang

    (National Tsing Hua University)

Abstract

The ongoing novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has already infected millions worldwide and, with no vaccine available, interventions to mitigate transmission are urgently needed. While there is broad agreement that travel restrictions and social distancing are beneficial in limiting spread, recommendations around face mask use are inconsistent. Here, we use mathematical modeling to examine the epidemiological impact of face masks, considering resource limitations and a range of supply and demand dynamics. Even with a limited protective effect, face masks can reduce total infections and deaths, and can delay the peak time of the epidemic. However, random distribution of masks is generally suboptimal; prioritized coverage of the elderly improves outcomes, while retaining resources for detected cases provides further mitigation under a range of scenarios. Face mask use, particularly for a pathogen with relatively common asymptomatic carriage, is an effective intervention strategy, while optimized distribution is important when resources are limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Colin J. Worby & Hsiao-Han Chang, 2020. "Face mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-17922-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17922-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Baloch, Gohram & Gzara, Fatma & Elhedhli, Samir, 2023. "Risk-based allocation of COVID-19 personal protective equipment under supply shortages," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1085-1100.
    2. Nattavudh Powdthavee & Yohanes E Riyanto & Erwin C L Wong & Jonathan X W Yeo & Qi Yu Chan, 2021. "When face masks signal social identity: Explaining the deep face-mask divide during the COVID-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, June.
    3. Yuan Liu & Chuyao Liao & Li Zhuo & Haiyan Tao, 2022. "Evaluating Effects of Dynamic Interventions to Control COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Guangdong, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Anna Petherick & Rafael Goldszmidt & Eduardo B. Andrade & Rodrigo Furst & Thomas Hale & Annalena Pott & Andrew Wood, 2021. "A worldwide assessment of changes in adherence to COVID-19 protective behaviours and hypothesized pandemic fatigue," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 1145-1160, September.
    5. Aspri, Andrea & Beretta, Elena & Gandolfi, Alberto & Wasmer, Etienne, 2021. "Mortality containment vs. Economics Opening: Optimal policies in a SEIARD model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Bedilu Alamirie Ejigu & Manalebish Debalike Asfaw & Lisa Cavalerie & Tilahun Abebaw & Mark Nanyingi & Matthew Baylis, 2021. "Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study of the case of Ethiopia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, November.
    7. Nikhil Agarwal & Andrew Komo & Chetan A. Patel & Parag A. Pathak & M. Utku Ünver, 2021. "The Trade-off Between Prioritization and Vaccination Speed Depends on Mitigation Measures," NBER Working Papers 28519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bo Zhang & Zhongjie Li & Lei Jiang, 2021. "The Intentions to Wear Face Masks and the Differences in Preventive Behaviors between Urban and Rural Areas during COVID-19: An Analysis Based on the Technology Acceptance Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-15, September.
    9. Hubert, Philipp & Abdel Hadi, Sascha & Mojzisch, Andreas & Häusser, Jan Alexander, 2022. "The effects of organizational climate on adherence to guidelines for COVID-19 prevention," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    10. Jos Lelieveld & Frank Helleis & Stephan Borrmann & Yafang Cheng & Frank Drewnick & Gerald Haug & Thomas Klimach & Jean Sciare & Hang Su & Ulrich Pöschl, 2020. "Model Calculations of Aerosol Transmission and Infection Risk of COVID-19 in Indoor Environments," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-18, November.
    11. Eren Oner & Ahmet Çağdaş Seçkin & Dilara Egeli & Mine Seçkin, 2022. "Investigation of the Thermal Comfort Properties of Masks Used during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-14, September.
    12. Hermógenes Fernández-Marín & Gaspar Bruner-Montero & Ana Portugal-Loayza & Virginia Miranda & Alcibiades Elias Villarreal Dominguez & Eduardo Ortega-Barría & Virginia Núñez-Samudio & Iván Landires & L, 2021. "Dynamics of Mask Use as a Prevention Strategy against SARS-CoV-2 in Panama," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Weike Zhou & Aili Wang & Xia Wang & Robert A. Cheke & Yanni Xiao & Sanyi Tang, 2020. "Impact of Hospital Bed Shortages on the Containment of COVID-19 in Wuhan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-18, November.
    14. Kate M. Bubar & Casey E. Middleton & Kristen K. Bjorkman & Roy Parker & Daniel B. Larremore, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Xu, Yuan-Hao & Wang, Hao-Jie & Lu, Zhong-Wen & Hu, Mao-Bin, 2023. "Impact of awareness dissemination on epidemic reaction–diffusion in multiplex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 621(C).
    16. Boraey, Mohammed A., 2021. "An analytical model for the effective filtration efficiency of single and multiple face masks considering leakage," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    17. Kieran Collings & Cedric Boisdon & Tung-Ting Sham & Kevin Skinley & Hyun-Kyung Oh & Tessa Prince & Adham Ahmed & Shaun H. Pennington & Philip J. Brownridge & Thomas Edwards & Giancarlo A. Biagini & Cl, 2023. "Attaching protein-adsorbing silica particles to the surface of cotton substrates for bioaerosol capture including SARS-CoV-2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Shuvrangshu Jana & Rudrashis Majumder & Prathyush P. Menon & Debasish Ghose, 2022. "Decision Support System (DSS) for Hierarchical Allocation of Resources and Tasks for Disaster Management," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-30, September.
    19. Braden Leap & Kimberly Kelly & Marybeth C. Stalp, 2022. "Choreographing social reproduction: Making personal protective equipment and gender during a neoliberal pandemic," Gender, Work and Organization, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 758-777, May.
    20. Tao, Yanqiu & You, Fengqi, 2021. "Can decontamination and reuse of N95 respirators during COVID-19 pandemic provide energy, environmental, and economic benefits?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).

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