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SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status

Author

Listed:
  • Kate M. Bubar

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Casey E. Middleton

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Kristen K. Bjorkman

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Roy Parker

    (University of Colorado Boulder
    University of Colorado Boulder
    Howard Hughes Medical Institute)

  • Daniel B. Larremore

    (University of Colorado Boulder
    University of Colorado Boulder)

Abstract

Screening programs that test only the unvaccinated population have been proposed and implemented to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 spread, implicitly assuming that the unvaccinated population drives transmission. To evaluate this premise and quantify the impact of unvaccinated-only screening programs, we introduce a model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission through which we explore a range of transmission rates, vaccine effectiveness scenarios, rates of prior infection, and screening programs. We find that, as vaccination rates increase, the proportion of transmission driven by the unvaccinated population decreases, such that most community spread is driven by vaccine-breakthrough infections once vaccine coverage exceeds 55% (omicron) or 80% (delta), points which shift lower as vaccine effectiveness wanes. Thus, we show that as vaccination rates increase, the transmission reductions associated with unvaccinated-only screening decline, identifying three distinct categories of impact on infections and hospitalizations. More broadly, these results demonstrate that effective unvaccinated-only screening depends on population immunity, vaccination rates, and variant.

Suggested Citation

  • Kate M. Bubar & Casey E. Middleton & Kristen K. Bjorkman & Roy Parker & Daniel B. Larremore, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30144-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30144-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mrinank Sharma & Sören Mindermann & Charlie Rogers-Smith & Gavin Leech & Benedict Snodin & Janvi Ahuja & Jonas B. Sandbrink & Joshua Teperowski Monrad & George Altman & Gurpreet Dhaliwal & Lukas Finnv, 2021. "Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Daniel B. Larremore & Derek Toomre & Roy Parker, 2021. "Modeling the effectiveness of olfactory testing to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Colin J. Worby & Hsiao-Han Chang, 2020. "Face mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Nina Haug & Lukas Geyrhofer & Alessandro Londei & Elma Dervic & Amélie Desvars-Larrive & Vittorio Loreto & Beate Pinior & Stefan Thurner & Peter Klimek, 2020. "Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1303-1312, December.
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    1. Ioannis Alexandros Charitos & Andrea Ballini & Roberto Lovero & Francesca Castellaneta & Marica Colella & Salvatore Scacco & Stefania Cantore & Roberto Arrigoni & Filiberto Mastrangelo & Mario Dioguar, 2022. "Update on COVID-19 and Effectiveness of a Vaccination Campaign in a Global Context," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-20, August.

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