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Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Mrinank Sharma

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Sören Mindermann

    (University of Oxford)

  • Charlie Rogers-Smith

    (University of Oxford)

  • Gavin Leech

    (University of Bristol)

  • Benedict Snodin

    (University of Oxford)

  • Janvi Ahuja

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Jonas B. Sandbrink

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Joshua Teperowski Monrad

    (University of Oxford
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • George Altman

    (Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust)

  • Gurpreet Dhaliwal

    (The Francis Crick Institute
    University of Warwick)

  • Lukas Finnveden

    (University of Oxford)

  • Alexander John Norman

    (University of Oxford)

  • Sebastian B. Oehm

    (Medical Research Council Laboratory of Molecular Biology
    University of Cambridge)

  • Julia Fabienne Sandkühler

    (University of Essen)

  • Laurence Aitchison

    (University of Bristol)

  • Tomáš Gavenčiak

    (Independent scholar)

  • Thomas Mellan

    (Imperial College London)

  • Jan Kulveit

    (University of Oxford)

  • Leonid Chindelevitch

    (Imperial College London)

  • Seth Flaxman

    (Imperial College London)

  • Yarin Gal

    (University of Oxford)

  • Swapnil Mishra

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Samir Bhatt

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London
    University of Copenhagen)

  • Jan Markus Brauner

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

Abstract

European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe’s second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model and collecting the largest dataset of NPI implementation dates across Europe. Business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, but reduced it less than they did in the first wave. This difference is likely due to organisational safety measures and individual protective behaviours—such as distancing—which made various areas of public life safer and thereby reduced the effect of closing them. Specifically, we find smaller effects for closing educational institutions, suggesting that stringent safety measures made schools safer compared to the first wave. Second-wave estimates outperform previous estimates at predicting transmission in Europe’s third wave.

Suggested Citation

  • Mrinank Sharma & Sören Mindermann & Charlie Rogers-Smith & Gavin Leech & Benedict Snodin & Janvi Ahuja & Jonas B. Sandbrink & Joshua Teperowski Monrad & George Altman & Gurpreet Dhaliwal & Lukas Finnv, 2021. "Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26013-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuki Furuse, 2022. "Properties of the Omicron Variant of SARS-CoV-2 Affect Public Health Measure Effectiveness in the COVID-19 Epidemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-8, April.
    2. Sebastian Contreras & Jonas Dehning & Viola Priesemann, 2022. "Describing a landscape we are yet discovering," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(3), pages 399-402, September.
    3. Miquel Oliu-Barton & Bary S. R. Pradelski & Nicolas Woloszko & Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud & Philippe Aghion & Patrick Artus & Arnaud Fontanet & Philippe Martin & Guntram B. Wolff, 2022. "The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Jonas Dehning & Sebastian B. Mohr & Sebastian Contreras & Philipp Dönges & Emil N. Iftekhar & Oliver Schulz & Philip Bechtle & Viola Priesemann, 2023. "Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Francesc López Seguí & Jose Maria Navarrete Duran & Albert Tuldrà & Maria Sarquella & Boris Revollo & Josep Maria Llibre & Jordi Ara del Rey & Oriol Estrada Cuxart & Roger Paredes Deirós & Guillem Her, 2021. "Impact of Mass Workplace COVID-19 Rapid Testing on Health and Healthcare Resource Savings," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-8, July.
    6. Apel, Johannes & Rohde, Niklas & Marcus, Jan, 2023. "The effect of a nighttime curfew on the spread of COVID-19," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Liu, Jielun & Ong, Ghim Ping & Pang, Vincent Junxiong, 2022. "Modelling effectiveness of COVID-19 pandemic control policies using an Area-based SEIR model with consideration of infection during interzonal travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 25-47.
    8. Nagel, Kai & Rakow, Christian & Müller, Sebastian A., 2021. "Realistic agent-based simulation of infection dynamics and percolation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 584(C).
    9. Sebastian A Müller & Michael Balmer & William Charlton & Ricardo Ewert & Andreas Neumann & Christian Rakow & Tilmann Schlenther & Kai Nagel, 2021. "Predicting the effects of COVID-19 related interventions in urban settings by combining activity-based modelling, agent-based simulation, and mobile phone data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-32, October.
    10. Shuang Ma & Kang Cao & Shuangjin Li & Yaozhi Luo & Ke Wang & Wei Liu & Guohui Sun, 2022. "Examining the Human Activity-Intensity Change at Different Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic across Chinese Working, Residential and Entertainment Areas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Richard J. Sheppard & Oliver J. Watson & Rachel Pieciak & James Lungu & Geoffrey Kwenda & Crispin Moyo & Stephen Longa Chanda & Gregory Barnsley & Nicholas F. Brazeau & Ines C. G. Gerard-Ursin & Danie, 2023. "Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Anna Kristina Witte & Janina Grosch & Beate Conrady & Lena Schomakers & Marcus Grohmann, 2022. "Free PoC Testing for SARS-CoV-2 in Germany: Factors Expanding Access to Various Communities in a Medium-Sized City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-16, April.
    13. Kate M. Bubar & Casey E. Middleton & Kristen K. Bjorkman & Roy Parker & Daniel B. Larremore, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Souad Hassanie & Olusegun A. Olugbade & Georgiana Karadas & Özlem Altun, 2022. "The Impact of Workload on Workers’ Traumatic Stress and Mental Health Mediated by Career Adaptability during COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-18, September.
    15. Yong Ge & Wen-Bin Zhang & Xilin Wu & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Haiyan Liu & Jianghao Wang & Yongze Song & Mengxiao Liu & Wei Yan & Juan Yang & Eimear Cleary & Sarchil H. Qader & Fatumah Atuhaire & Nic, 2022. "Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Coilín ÓhAiseadha & Gerry A. Quinn & Ronan Connolly & Awwad Wilson & Michael Connolly & Willie Soon & Paul Hynds, 2023. "Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) for Population Health and Health Inequalities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(7), pages 1-40, March.
    17. Tamás Hajdu & Judit Krekó & Csaba G. Tóth, 2023. "Inequalities in regional excess mortality and life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2316, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    18. Caixia Wang & Huijie Li, 2022. "Public Compliance Matters in Evidence-Based Public Health Policy: Evidence from Evaluating Social Distancing in the First Wave of COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-13, March.
    19. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Margarete Redlin, 2023. "The effectiveness of vaccination, testing, and lockdown strategies against COVID-19," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 585-607, December.

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