IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26789.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Take the Q Train: Value Capture of Public Infrastructure Projects

Author

Listed:
  • Arpit Gupta
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
  • Constantine Kontokosta

Abstract

Transit infrastructure is a critical asset for economic activity yet costly to build in dense urban environments. We measure the benefit of the Second Avenue Subway extension in New York City, the most expensive urban transit infrastructure project in recent memory, by analyzing local real estate prices which capitalize the benefits of transit spillovers. We find 8% price increases, creating $6 billion in new property value. Using cell phone ping data, we document substantial reductions in commuting time especially among subway users, offering a plausible mechanism for the price gains. The increase in prices reflects both higher rents and lower risk. Infrastructure improvements lower the riskiness of real estate investments. Only 30% of the private value created by the subway is captured through higher property tax revenue, and is insufficient to cover the cost of the subway. Targeted property tax increases may help governments capture more of the value created, and serve as a useful funding tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Arpit Gupta & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Constantine Kontokosta, 2020. "Take the Q Train: Value Capture of Public Infrastructure Projects," NBER Working Papers 26789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26789
    Note: AP CF PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w26789.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Keith Chen & Kareem Haggag & Devin G. Pope & Ryne Rohla, 2019. "Racial Disparities in Voting Wait Times: Evidence from Smartphone Data," Papers 1909.00024, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    2. Michael L. Anderson, 2014. "Subways, Strikes, and Slowdowns: The Impacts of Public Transit on Traffic Congestion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2763-2796, September.
    3. Siqi Zheng & Matthew E. Kahn, 2013. "Does Government Investment in Local Public Goods Spur Gentrification? Evidence from Beijing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-28, March.
    4. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    5. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Liu, Haoming, 2018. "How much do users value a network expansion? Evidence from the public transit system in Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 46-61.
    6. Cadot, Olivier & Roller, Lars-Hendrik & Stephan, Andreas, 2006. "Contribution to productivity or pork barrel? The two faces of infrastructure investment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(6-7), pages 1133-1153, August.
    7. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Kahn, Matthew E., 2000. "The effects of new public projects to expand urban rail transit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 241-263, August.
    8. Castells, Antoni & Sole-Olle, Albert, 2005. "The regional allocation of infrastructure investment: The role of equity, efficiency and political factors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1165-1205, July.
    9. Jen-Jia Lin & Chi-Hau Hwang, 2004. "Analysis of property prices before and after the opening of the Taipei subway system," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 38(4), pages 687-704, December.
    10. Diao, Mi & Leonard, Delon & Sing, Tien Foo, 2017. "Spatial-difference-in-differences models for impact of new mass rapid transit line on private housing values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 64-77.
    11. M. Keith Chen & Ryne Rohla, 2017. "The Effect of Partisanship and Political Advertising on Close Family Ties," Papers 1711.10602, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    12. Christopher Severen, 2018. "Commuting, Labor, and Housing Market Effects of Mass Transportation: Welfare and Identification," Working Papers 18-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Daniel P. McMillen & John McDonald, 2004. "Reaction of House Prices to a New Rapid Transit Line: Chicago's Midway Line, 1983–1999," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 463-486, September.
    14. Alberto Plazzi & Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov, 2010. "Expected Returns and Expected Growth in Rents of Commercial Real Estate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3469-3519.
    15. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    16. Byron F. Lutz, 2008. "The connection between house price appreciation and property tax revenues," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Lutz, Byron F., 2008. "The Connection Between House Price Appreciation and Property Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 61(3), pages 555-572, September.
    18. Konrad Finkenzeller & Tobias Dechant & Wolfgang Schäfers, 2010. "Infrastructure: a new dimension of real estate? An asset allocation analysis," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 263-274, July.
    19. Dewees, D. N., 1976. "The effect of a subway on residential property values in Toronto," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-369, October.
    20. Black, Dan A. & Kolesnikova, Natalia & Taylor, Lowell J., 2014. "Why do so few women work in New York (and so many in Minneapolis)? Labor supply of married women across US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 59-71.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Pollmann, 2020. "Causal Inference for Spatial Treatments," Papers 2011.00373, arXiv.org.
    2. Edward L. Glaeser & James M. Poterba, 2020. "Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment," NBER Working Papers 28215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Liu, Haoming, 2018. "How much do users value a network expansion? Evidence from the public transit system in Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 46-61.
    2. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Nitsch, Volker & Wendland, Nicolai, 2019. "Ease vs. noise: Long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Liu, Haoming, 2016. "How Do Users Value a Network Expansion? Evidence from the Public Transit System in Singapore," IZA Discussion Papers 10142, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Volker Nitsch & Nicolai Wendland, 2019. "Ease versus noise: long-run changes in the value of transport (dis)amenities," CEP Discussion Papers dp1631, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2014. "Housing market volatility in the OECD area: Evidence from VAR based return decompositions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 91-103.
    6. Liu, Shimeng & Yang, Xi, 2020. "Property tax limits and female labor supply: Evidence from the housing boom and bust," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Aleksandar Andonov & Roman Kräussl & Joshua Rauh, 2018. "The Subsidy to Infrastructure as an Asset Class," NBER Working Papers 25045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2015. "Predicting returns and rent growth in the housing market using the rent-price ratio: Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 257-275.
    9. Chun-Chang Lee & Chi-Ming Liang & Hui-Chuan Hong, 2020. "The Impact of a Mass Rapid Transit System on Neighborhood Housing Prices: An Application of Difference-In-Difference and Spatial Econometrics," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(1), pages 28-40, March.
    10. Diao, Mi & Leonard, Delon & Sing, Tien Foo, 2017. "Spatial-difference-in-differences models for impact of new mass rapid transit line on private housing values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 64-77.
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2016. "Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 562-578.
    12. Dubé, Jean & Rosiers, François Des & Thériault, Marius & Dib, Patricia, 2011. "Economic impact of a supply change in mass transit in urban areas: A Canadian example," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 46-62, January.
    13. Seungwoo Chin & Matthew E. Kahn & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2020. "Estimating the Gains from New Rail Transit Investment: A Machine Learning Tree Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 886-914, September.
    14. Hiebert, Paul & Sydow, Matthias, 2009. "What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model," Working Paper Series 1019, European Central Bank.
    15. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt, 2011. "The Train has Left the Station: Do Markets Value Intracity Access to Intercity Rail Connections?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(3), pages 312-335, August.
    16. Sun, Weizeng & Zheng, Siqi & Wang, Rui, 2015. "The capitalization of subway access in home value: A repeat-rentals model with supply constraints in Beijing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 104-115.
    17. Moutzouris, Ioannis C. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2019. "Earnings yield and predictability in the dry bulk shipping industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 140-159.
    18. Wenjie Wu & Guanpeng Dong & Bing Wang, 2015. "Does Planning Matter? Effects on Land Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 242-269, February.
    19. Christian Rehring & Steffen Sebastian, 2011. "Dynamics of commercial real estate asset markets, return volatility and the investment horizon," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 291-315, June.
    20. Antonio Estache, 2010. "A survey of impact evaluations of infrastructure projects, programs and policies," Working Papers ECARES 2010_005, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G5 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26789. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.