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The connection between house price appreciation and property tax revenues

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  • Byron F. Lutz

Abstract

This paper explores two aspects of the connection between property tax revenues and house prices. First, I estimate the elasticity of property tax revenues with respect to house prices. This elasticity does not necessarily equal one as governments may adjust effective tax rates to offset changes in property values. Second, I examine the timing of the relationship. Institutional features of the property tax make it unlikely that changes in house prices will immediately influence tax revenues. The results suggest that the elasticity eventually equals 0.4 and that it takes three years for house price changes to impact tax revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Byron F. Lutz, 2008. "The connection between house price appreciation and property tax revenues," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-48
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 12746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ladd, Helen F., 1991. "Property tax revaluation and tax levy growth revisited," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 83-99, July.
    4. Cornia, Gary C. & Walters, Lawrence C., 2006. "Full Disclosure: Controlling Property Tax Increases During Periods of Increasing Housing Values," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 59(3), pages 735-749, September.
    5. Dye, Richard F. & McMillen, Daniel P. & Merriman, David F., 2006. "Illinois' Response to Rising Residential Property Values: An Assessment Growth Cap in Cook County," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 59(3), pages 707-716, September.
    6. Preston, Anne E. & Ichniowski, Casey, 1991. "A National Perspective on the Nature and Effects of the Local Property Tax Revolt, 1976-1986," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 44(2), pages 123-145, June.
    7. Giertz, J. Fred, 2006. "The Property Tax Bound," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 59(3), pages 695-705, September.
    8. Andreas Lehnert, 2004. "Housing, consumption, and credit constraints," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Preston, Anne E. & Ichniowski, Casey, 1991. "A National Perspective on the Nature and Effects of the Local Property Tax Revolt, 1976-1986," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 44(2), pages 123-45, June.
    10. Bloom, Howard S. & Ladd, Helen F., 1982. "Property tax revaluation and tax levy growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 73-84, January.
    11. Dye, Richard F. & McGuire, Therese J., 1997. "The effect of property tax limitation measures on local government fiscal behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 469-487, December.
    12. Anderson, Nathan B., 2006. "Property Tax Limitations: An Interpretative Review," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 59(3), pages 685-694, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz, Byron & Molloy, Raven & Shan, Hui, 2011. "The housing crisis and state and local government tax revenue: Five channels," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 306-319, July.
    2. David B. Cashin & Jamie Lenney & Byron F. Lutz & William B. Peterman, 2017. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand in the U.S. Before, During and Following the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Follette, Glenn & Kusko, Andrea & Lutz, Byron, 2008. "State and Local Finances and the Macroeconomy: The High–Employment Budget and Fiscal Impetus," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 61(3), pages 531-545, September.
    4. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R. & Willardsen, Kevin, 2014. "The millage rate offset and property tax revenue stability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 167-176.
    5. Diarmaid Addison-Smyth & Kieran McQuinn, 2010. "Quantifying Revenue Windfalls from the Irish Housing Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(2), pages 201-233.
    6. Stine, William F., 2010. "Estimating the Determinants of Property Reassessment Duration: An Empirical Study of Pennsylvania Counties," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 40(2).
    7. Matthew Davis & Fernando V. Ferreira, 2017. "Housing Disease and Public School Finances," NBER Working Papers 24140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Richard F. Dye & David F. Merriman & Katherine Goulde, 2014. "Tax Increment Financing and the Great Recession," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 67(3), pages 697-718, September.
    9. Feler, Leo & Senses, Mine Zeynep, 2016. "Trade Shocks and the Provision of Local Public Goods," IZA Discussion Papers 10231, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    10. Makowsky, Michael & Sanders, Shane, 2013. "Political costs and fiscal benefits: The political economy of residential property value assessment under Proposition 212," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 359-363.
    11. Chernick, Howard & Langley, Adam & Reschovsky, Andrew, 2011. "The impact of the Great Recession and the housing crisis on the financing of America's largest cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 372-381, July.
    12. Alm, James & Buschman, Robert D. & Sjoquist, David L., 2014. "Foreclosures and local government revenues from the property tax: The case of Georgia school districts," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-11.
    13. Ross, Justin M. & Yan, Wenli, 2013. "Fiscal Illusion From Property Reassessment? An Empirical Test of the Residual View," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 66(1), pages 7-32, March.
    14. Alm, James & Buschman, Robert D. & Sjoquist, David L., 2011. "Rethinking local government reliance on the property tax," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 320-331, July.
    15. Razvan Vlaicu & Alexander Whalley, 2011. "Do housing bubbles generate fiscal bubbles?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(1), pages 89-108, October.
    16. James Alm & J. Sebastian Leguizamon, 2018. "The Housing Crisis, Foreclosures, and Local Tax Revenues," Working Papers 1803, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    17. Tom Downes & Kieran M. Killeen, 2014. "So Slow to Change: The Limited Growth of Nontax Revenues in Public Education Finance, 1991–2010," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 9(4), pages 567-599, October.
    18. James Alm & Robert D. Buschman & David L. Sjoquist, 2013. "How did foreclosures affect property values in Georgia School Districts?," Working Papers 1308, Tulane University, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

    Housing - Prices ; Property tax;

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